US Economics Update Inventories are the wildcard for third-quarter GDP growth After an unexpected surge at the end of the second quarter, inventories are shaping up to be the big wildcard in third-quarter GDP growth. We expect inventories to subtract 0.5% points, with third... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recession debate losing its focus Although the economy might only be suffering the mildest of recessions, the bigger and far more important point often lost in the debate is that the economy is clearly underperforming its growth... 17th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly External deflation will be swamped by domestic inflation Last week the markets were very much focused on the potential for a stalling Chinese economy to “export” deflationary pressure to the US, either via the direct impact of a weaker renminbi or through... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Jun.) June's smaller than expected rebound in manufacturing sales values, which was even weaker in volumes terms, provides more evidence that the non-energy economy is struggling to lift the economy out of... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence was virtually unchanged in August, and remains consistent with annualised consumption growth remaining close to 3%, or even better, in the... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in industrial production in July was much higher than the consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, but it was primarily due to a massive surge in motor vehicle output. The latter... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Rising unit labour costs a danger to the US stock market Weak productivity growth and rising wage inflation are likely to put upward pressure on unit labour costs in the US over the coming year, squeeze profit margins and cap the upside for the stock market... 14th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q2) The share of mortgage borrowers having trouble with repayments dropped again in the second quarter, thanks to low mortgage rates, rising house prices and a solid labour market. That progress should... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in July's retail sales, which matched the consensus forecast, was solid rather than spectacular. But upward revisions to sales in May and June mean that real consumption growth... 13th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will events in China force the Fed to delay US rate lift-off? The risk of a further market-driven slide in the Chinese renminbi and the renewed slump in global commodity prices, triggered by heightened concerns about the state of China’s economy, probably won’t... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) Although the rate of house price inflation remained at 5.1% in July, the recent rebound in the home sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it may yet accelerate to 6.0%. This mainly the strength... 12th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Housing construction boom likely to end in bust The latest housing start figures don't fully reflect the relatively stronger pace of building permits, an indication that home building may accelerate further in the near-term, even as signs point to... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Slump in productivity growth is the no.1 economic problem Ignore the 1.3% annualised rebound in non-farm productivity in the second quarter, which barely reversed the 1.1% decline in the first quarter. The bigger story is the almost unprecedented weakness of... 11th August 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand continues to strengthen Total home sales increased to nearly 6m annualised in June. This was the fastest pace of sales since before the financial crisis and is a clear sign that the market is gradually normalising. Moreover... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Renovation tax credit would only worsen housing excesses The Conservative campaign pledge to introduce a new home renovation tax credit if elected this autumn is possibly more misguided than the NDP and Liberal pledges to raise taxes during a recession... 10th August 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jul.) Employment increased by 6,600 in July, more evidence that the recent declines in output haven't been severe enough to induce employers to slash jobs. For the time being that's comforting. But if the... 7th August 2015 · 1 min read
