US Economics Weekly Odds of a rate hike this year even lower now The likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates before the end of this year tumbled again last week, as the incoming data triggered some sizeable downgrades to estimates of third-quarter GDP growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod’n (Sep.) & Consumer Conf. (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in September was a much smaller fall than we were expecting, but it nonetheless illustrates the impact that the stronger dollar is having on manufacturing... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Easing credit conditions are beginning to boost FTB numbers Lenders have accelerated the easing of mortgage lending standards in recent months, thanks to a steady reduction in mortgage delinquencies and new GSE policies. That has started to boost the number of... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The slight decline in manufacturing sales volumes in August echoes the decline in exports already reported for that month, providing more evidence that the recovery from the first-half recession is... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The September CPI report suggests that although domestic inflationary pressures are slowly building, the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices will give the Fed an excuse to delay hiking interest... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.6% in September and the elevated sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it will accelerate to 6.0% by the end of the year. The national average... 15th October 2015 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to be more guarded against global risks We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep 15) The softness of September’s retail sales figures supports our view that the Fed probably isn’t going to hike interest rates until early next year. Our calculations now suggest that third-quarter GDP... 14th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are bond investors wrong about the prospects for Fed policy? We expect the Bank of Canada to hold its policy rate at 0.50% next week and retain its neutral stance on the rate outlook. The incoming data indicate that third-quarter GDP growth was stronger than... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How tight are conditions in the rental market? On the basis of past form, the fact the rental vacancy rate has hit a 30-year low would suggest rental growth is set to surge. But the drop in the vacancy rate is being exaggerated by a rise in the... 13th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rising business confidence unlikely to convince BoC The Bank of Canada's third-quarter Business Outlook Survey showed that more businesses are betting on an improving US economy and a cheaper loonie to lift Canada’s economy out of its oil induced slump... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outcome of TPP deal irrelevant for US outlook The big news last week was the announcement of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement between the US and 11 other countries, which aims to lower trade barriers and set common commercial... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly A Trans-Pacific Partnership deal wouldn’t improve outlook The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, even if it was ratified soon, would be unlikely to improve Canada’s near-term economic prospects. The initial effects of the new trade agreement... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) The labour market continued to withstand the oil shock in September, churning out a moderate gain of 12,100 jobs. This wasn’t enough, however, to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.1%... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack New build sales finally making some headway The drop in mortgage rates towards the end of September has given mortgage applications a boost, as did the introduction of new disclosure requirements for mortgages as buyers acted early to avoid... 9th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The uncertainty generated by September’s Federal Reserve meeting, combined with a drop in mortgage rates to below 4% for the first time since May, helped applications for house purchase reverse most... 7th October 2015 · 1 min read
