US Economics Update Fed delays rate hike yet again Despite raising its GDP growth and core inflation forecasts for this year and lowering its unemployment rate forecast for this year, the Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.0% to 0... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) As expected, the disruption caused by the expiry of a tax-break in New York led to a drop in housing starts in August. But with homebuilder confidence elevated and building permits already recovering... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Manufacturing now faces an even greater challenge Despite the rebound in sales volumes over the summer, Canada’s export-orientated manufacturing sector has struggled repeatedly to sustain any gains in over the past two years or so. Even though US... 17th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) The 0.1% m/m decline in headline CPI inflation in August was partly due to the renewed decline in gasoline prices, but even core prices increased by only 0.1% m/m, suggesting that underlying inflation... 16th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug.) The August retail sales and industrial production reports highlight the continued divergence between a strong domestic economy led by healthy consumer spending and weakness in the export-orientated... 15th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug.) The rate of house price inflation rose to 5.4% in August and the elevated sales-to-new listings ratio indicates that it will accelerate to 6.0% before year end. The national average continues to be... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response US silver imports and exports (Jun.) US silver imports rose in June after a weak May, but exports of semi-manufactured silver slumped, suggesting weak industrial demand from the rest of the world. Meanwhile, retail appetite for physical... 14th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Additional rate cut still seems like a good bet The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.5% last week was largely as expected in light of the recent news that the real economy returned to growth in June... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Conf. (Sep.) & Producer Prices (Aug.) Although the slump in the University of Michigan consumer confidence index to a 12-month low of 85.7 in September, from 91.9, left it well below the consensus forecast at 91.1 it was almost exactly in... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Remaining labour market slack rapidly shrinking The decline in the unemployment rate to only 5.1% in August means that the Fed has arguably already achieved the full employment part of its dual mandate. If there is still any slack left in thel... 11th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are home purchase mortgage applications so subdued? The first quarter’s recovery in mortgage applications for home purchase appears to have been derailed by a lack of earnings growth and the resulting deterioration in affordability. While earnings... 10th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada stands pat for now The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50% today was largely as expected given that the economy apparently returned to positive growth in June. But we still... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Surge in sales leads to tighter market conditions Housing market activity on most measures has seen further gains. Existing home sales rose unexpectedly in July, and are now up 16% since the start of the year. And while starts were essentially flat... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Odds of a September rate hike are 50-50 The odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on Thursday, are close to 50-50. The cumulative improvement in the economy over the past few years means that it... 9th September 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Better news from China to outweigh first Fed hike The prices of key industrial commodities, notably oil, have been relatively calm in the last few days, helped by the holidays that closed China’s equity markets. Nonetheless, the robust US employment... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Disparity widens between manufacturing & other sectors With less than two weeks to go until the next FOMC meeting, the odds that the Fed will raise interest rates this month are still close to 50-50. The US economic data remain strong, with the notable... 4th September 2015 · 1 min read
