US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) & Consumer Conf. (Oct.) The 1.2% m/m decline in durable goods orders in September was actually better than we expected, but only because the drag from the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category wasn't as bad as we... 27th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Sep.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money aggregate slowed to 5.0% in September butbank loans are still expanding at a healthy 7.7% clip. 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) New home sales recorded a surprise drop of 11.5% in September. Yet new home sales data are notoriously volatile. And, given the strong performance of existing home sales in September, as well as the... 26th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bigger fiscal expansion may eventually be needed Canada’s growth outlook is one of the weakest among G7 members and other advanced economies. Low commodity prices are the main reason for this. With falling business investment weighing the economy... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling still likely to be raised before deadline The Treasury’s November 3rd deadline for raising the debt ceiling is getting closer without any sign that Congress is close to a deal to raise the limit. Yields on Treasury bills scheduled to mature... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The 0.2% m/m decline in consumer prices in September, which pushed the annual inflation rate down to 1.0%, from 1.3%, was almost entirely due to a big slump in gasoline prices. Gasoline prices fell by... 23rd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales rebounded by 4.7% in September. While there are a number of factors pointing to a moderation in sales over the coming months, over the medium-term the outlook is broadly positive. 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) The 0.7% m/m gain in retail sales volumes in August was larger than we had assumed and indicates that a stronger showing in third-quarter real consumer spending is an upside risk to our overall GDP... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed now likely to delay first rate hike until early 2016 It is highly unlikely that the Fed will spring a surprise rate hike at next week's FOMC meeting, which concludes on Wednesday 28th October, and even the odds of a hike at the December meeting have... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Incoming data point to slowdown in GDP growth Our calculations now suggest that GDP growth slowed to only 1.5% annualised in the third quarter. Even after the disappointment of September’s retail sales figures, third-quarter consumption growth... 22nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada turning more dovish The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its policy rate at 0.50% was as expected given that the economy most likely returned to positive growth in the third quarter. The uncertain outlook, however... 21st October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Participation rate will continue to fall The decline in the participation rate is almost entirely due to structural factors and there is little prospect of a rebound in the next few years. The downward trend in the participation rate... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Sep.) As expected, housing starts resumed their upward trend in September, confirming that the disruption over the summer caused by the expiry of a tax-break in New York has now worked through. While the... 20th October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation targeting policy not enough Canada’s inflation target agreement between the Federal government and the Bank of Canada is up for renewal next year and the conventional wisdom is that it doesn’t need fixing. In contrast, we think... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Odds of a rate hike this year even lower now The likelihood of the Fed hiking interest rates before the end of this year tumbled again last week, as the incoming data triggered some sizeable downgrades to estimates of third-quarter GDP growth... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod’n (Sep.) & Consumer Conf. (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in September was a much smaller fall than we were expecting, but it nonetheless illustrates the impact that the stronger dollar is having on manufacturing... 16th October 2015 · 1 min read
