Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) While the sharp decline in export volumes in August was disappointing, the big gains in earlier months mean that net trade still contributed positively to third-quarter GDP, which we now estimate grew... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) House prices rose by a substantial 1.5% m/m seasonally adjusted in August according to CoreLogic. Even accounting for the fact that early estimates of house price growth on this measure tend to get... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The huge widening in the trade deficit in August to $48.3bn, from $41.8 bn in July, demonstrates the extent to which deteriorating global growth and the sharp appreciation in the dollar have impacted... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Is the Fed playing “catch-up” with the bond market? The federal funds rate is now expected to rise to less than 3% in a decade’s time, judging by the risk-neutral US Treasury yield curve. This rate remains well below the average projection of FOMC... 6th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market fundamentals remain solid The slowdown in employment growth in August and September will probably delay the first interest rate hike until early 2016, but it doesn’t appear to be the start of a sustained deterioration in... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update TPP is potentially a “big deal” but only over the long term The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement which was announced today may not see the light of day for some years. Assuming, however, that it is eventually implemented, it should have large and... 5th October 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Tight supply condtions help to push up house prices House prices are picking up again on the back of a very tight housing market.But over the next couple of years, as greater numbers of new homes come onto the market andowners of existing properties... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed to delay rate hike until early 2016 The incoming economic data have been a lot more mixed recently, with the awful performance of exports and manufacturing, both dragged down by the dollar’s strength, now being compounded by a slowdown... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Hope springs eternal Market commentators and policymakers are optimistic that the latest monthly GDP data are a sign that the economy has turned the corner and that better times lie ahead. The details, however, reveal... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) While it’s always important not to over-react to one single data release, we’ll make an exception in this case. The chances of a rate hike by the Fed this year just went way down. Payroll employment... 2nd October 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.2 in September from 51.1 in August is yet another illustration of the devastating impact that the strong dollar and weak foreign demand is having on... 1st October 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil and gasoline stocks both jumped last week, driven by lower refinery runs, higher imports and a dip in demand for oil products. 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will surging external debt trigger a dollar crisis? Although America’s current account deficit is still a modest 2.4% of GDP, well below the 6.3% peak reached in late 2005, net external debt has more than quadrupled since mid-2007. Liabilities to... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) The stronger than expected showing in July’s GDP, which reflects volatility in oil sands output, suggests that the risks to the Bank of Canada’s Q3 GDP growth forecast of 1.5% annualised lie to the... 30th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug.) The annual growth rate of our M3 money measure accelerated to a five-month high of 5.6% in August, from 5.2%. The growth rates of the narrower M1 and M2 monetary aggregates are even higher. 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The increase in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 103.0 in September, from 101.3 suggests that lower gasoline prices trumped the fading impact from the financial market turmoil a... 29th September 2015 · 1 min read
