US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Oct.) As expected, existing home sales contracted in October. While housing demand is being supported by a strengthening labour market and gradual easing in credit conditions, a lack of housing inventory is... 23rd November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Deficit-funded spending plan unlikely to concern investors Canada’s new Federal Finance Minister has indicated that the government will forge ahead with its deficit-funded spending plan in an effort to support a flagging economy. Even if that means running... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Corporate balance sheets appear healthy The rise in credit spreads this year has been interpreted by some as a signal that the corporate sector is dangerously over-leveraged. At an aggregate level we can find very little evidence of this... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) & Retail Sales (Sep.) The annual headline inflation rate was unchanged at 1.0% in October but will soon rise sharply, as the drag from lower gasoline prices fades. Meanwhile, core inflation will stay close to 2.0% as the... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update What do the weekly changes in US oil stocks actually tell us? Changes in US weekly crude oil stocks are most influenced by variations in net crude imports, which are extremely volatile. This means it is difficult to make inferences about prices just by looking... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Frontier markets scramble as Fed hike approaches Central banks across the world’s frontier markets are preparing themselves as the US Federal Reserve finally moves toward its first rate hike in nine years. Central bankers in Angola, Ghana, Zambia... 20th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Homeownership rate has finally found a floor Our call over two years ago that the homeownership rate would see further declines has proved broadly correct. But with foreclosures now back to historical norms, and credit conditions gradually... 19th November 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US stocks of crude oil ticked up only slightly last week, whilst stocks of gasoline edged up again as refineries continued to increase production. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) October’s double-digit drop in housing starts was disappointing. But there are good reasons to believe that starts will bounce back in November. 18th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q3) Low interest rates, falling unemployment and a reduction in the share of mortgages with negative equity all contributed to another drop in the delinquency rate in the third quarter. 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in October was mainly due to a weather-related drop in utilities output. Nevertheless, while the 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output was encouraging... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The 0.2% m/m decline in industrial production in October was mainly due to a weather-related drop in utilities output. Nevertheless, while the 0.4% m/m gain in manufacturing output was encouraging... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) There is now clear evidence of an acceleration in core services price inflation, which hit a six-year high in October. That acceleration has been partly offset by the deflationary impact of the... 17th November 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Sep.) The further decline in manufacturing sales volumes in September and the downward revision to August provides more evidence that the economic recovery from the mild recession in the first half of the... 16th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Medical care inflation due for a rebound Although the Fed expects to raise interest rates only very gradually next year, we suspect that an acceleration in core inflation, thanks in part to a rebound in medical care inflation, will force the... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Nov.) & Business Sales (Sep.) The rebound in the University of Michigan’s consumer confidence measure to a four-month high of 93.1 in November, from 90.0, presumably reflects the rebound in stock markets and the resilience of... 13th November 2015 · 1 min read
