Canada Economics Weekly Unconventional policy toolkit unlikely to be tested While we have long argued that the fallout from the oil shock would be disruptive and that hopes for an export revival were misplaced, we doubt that the Bank of Canada will need to resort to negative... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Nov.) The modest 0.2% m/m gain in headline sales in November was partly due to a price-related drop in gasoline station sales and a slight dip in the value of motor vehicle sales, which remain close to a... 11th December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks registered their first fall in almost three months last week, despite another jump in net imports and a decrease in refinery runs. 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed on the cusp of historic rate hike At next week’s FOMC meeting, which concludes on 16 th December, the Fed is now almost universally expected to raise the fed funds rate by 25 basis points, to a range of between 0.25% and 0.50%. In the... 9th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Easing in credit conditions edges up housing demand The lack of housing inventory continues to drive developments in the market. The months’ supply of existing homes for sale has now been below five since May. That is both holding back home sales, and... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation is coming Although we expect GDP growth to be a moderate 2.5% next year, the big surprise will be how quickly inflation rebounds. With domestic price pressures mounting and this year’s deflationary shocks from... 8th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US lumber price should recover in 2016 The price of US lumber has fallen sharply this year, despite an ongoing improvement in the US housing sector. This divergence can be explained in part by the depreciation of the Canadian dollar, which... 7th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy exhibiting symptoms of recession The rebound in third-quarter real GDP has prompted some commentators to conclude that Canada’s recession is officially over. But the real GDI measure, which incorporates important terms of trade... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Interest rate hikes tied to pace of inflation rebound Last week Chair Janet Yellen all but confirmed that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates from near-zero at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which ends on 16 th December. Any final doubts should have... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The loss of 35,700 jobs in November and the uptick in the unemployment rate to 7.1%, from 7.0%, was party related to the completion of the recent Federal election. The significant loss in private... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) & Int. Trade (Oct.) The 211,000 gain in November's non-farm payrolls, along with the 35,000 upward revision to the gains in the preceding two months, would appear to seal an interest rate hike at the Fed's upcoming FOMC... 4th December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Stronger dollar hits agriculturals as sentiment weakens A general strengthening of the US dollar in recent weeks, on expectations that the Fed will begin to raise interest rates this month, has been a key factor dragging agricultural prices lower. Along... 3rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada remains neutral on rate outlook The Bank of Canada’s decision to leave its policy rate at 0.50% today was as expected given that the economy returned to positive growth in the third quarter. Although it believes economic growth will... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US oil stocks grew again last week despite strong growth in refinery inputs, as a surge in imports overwhelmed higher demand. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) A rise in mortgage rates led to a sharp drop in mortgage refinancing activity in November. But applications for home purchase fared better, with the weekly breakdown showing an encouraging rise in... 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Ample supplies to keep corn prices under pressure While the US EPA’s finalised renewable fuel standard should boost demand for US corn next year, we think ample global supplies will continue to weigh on the price in the near term. 2nd December 2015 · 1 min read
