US Economics Weekly Is the US economy heading for a recession? The latest incoming monthly data suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to between 1.0% and 1.5% annualised. Added to the widening in corporate credit spreads, the renewed weakness in stock... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) Employment rose by a stronger than expected 22,800 in December, but the breakdown continued to reveal disturbing trends in private sector and higher paid prime-age employment, which are more accurate... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 292,000 surge in non-farm payroll employment, together with the 50,000 upward revision to the gains earlier months should put paid to any fears that, even if fourth-quarter GDP growth ends up... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks slipped last week despite a slight increase in production and a fall in refinery inputs. However, a sharp fall in gasoline demand and a huge rise in inventories has stolen the... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Nov.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Dec.) Although the trade deficit narrowed to an eight-month low of $42.4bn in November, from $44.6bn, the decline was only because imports fell at a faster pace than exports, which is hardly a positive sign... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Nov.) The modest rebound in export volumes in November wasn’t enough to offset the much larger decline in the previous month, suggesting that exports contracted over the fourth quarter as a whole. As things... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) The collapse in refinancing activity in the final week of 2015 looks to reflect seasonal issues, rather than a reaction to the Fed hiking interest rates. Indeed, applications for home purchase held up... 6th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Nov.) House price growth is accelerating as a rise in demand has combined with low inventory levels to boost sellers’ bargaining power. Increases in interest rates will act to cool the market to some extent... 5th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Jump in wage growth not all due to base effects Our econometric model indicates a 210,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in December, which should be enough to nudge the unemployment rate down to 4.9%. Base effects mean that even a modest 0.2%... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Dec.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in December, from 48.6, leaves it at its lowest level since June 2009 and will add to concerns about a deterioration in global demand triggered by... 4th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks saw the largest fall since early July last week, despite a slight increase in production, as net imports dropped sharply. However, product demand also declined, with production of... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Nov.) Solid new home sales data for November lend weight to the idea that yesterday’s slump in existing home sales was a blip, not a cause for concern. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Steel prices to recover slowly in 2016 After falling sharply in 2015, we expect US steel prices to recover slowly next year as a result of greater trade protectionism, further global capacity closures and improved demand. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Personal Spending (Nov.) The monthly data on consumption and investment released this morning do little to change our view that fourth-quarter GDP growth will be around 2.0% annualised. 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) After contracting by 0.5% m/m in September, the economy began the fourth-quarter poorly, with GDP unchanged in October. While non-conventional oil production rose modestly, declines elsewhere indicate... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
Energy Update Falling US production to support oil prices in 2016 The current weakness in crude oil prices partly reflects still-high production and stocks in the US, despite the collapse in the number of active drilling rigs there. But we expect the supply response... 23rd December 2015 · 1 min read
