US Economics Weekly Lower energy prices will delay rebound in inflation Our key theme for this year, that the two big deflationary shocks of 2015 - the slump in energy prices and the surge in the dollar - will fade, leaving rising domestic price pressures to generate a... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar likely to rebound before year end The plunge in the Canadian dollar to a thirteen-year low of US$0.69 has forecasters jumping on the bearish bandwagon with increasingly pessimistic forecasts for the year ahead, mainly over fears that... 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Dec.) December’s retail sales report was disappointing across the board and suggests that fourth-quarter GDP growth was as low as 1.0% annualised. 15th January 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is the US stock market really heading for a crash? The S&P 500 has shown signs of stabilising after a terrible start to the year. Many expect this to be a lull in the storm. But while there are at least eight reasons to be fearful of a major... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank likely to cut interest rates next week We expect the Bank of Canada to cut its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.25% next week, which is much sooner than most investors anticipate. The incoming data suggest that the economy... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Dec.) House price inflation rose slightly to a four-year high of 6.2% in December, from 6.1%, but the home-sales-to-listings ratio indicates that this is close to the peak. 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Three reasons why US natural gas prices could rise further The end of unusually warm winter weather in the US helps to explain the surge in natural gas prices since December. But we expect contracting supply, the start of LNG (liquefied natural gas) exports... 13th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update How disruptive have the TRID regulations been? The introduction of the TRID disclosure rules in October increased the time a mortgage takes to close by a small amount, which will have delayed some home sales. But the evidence does not support... 12th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will lower oil prices ever become a net positive? The magnitude and duration of the slump in oil prices has far exceeded what we originally expected and the longer it persists, the harder it is to argue that decline will ever be a net positive for... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business hiring intentions warn of full-blown recession The Bank of Canada's fourth-quarter update on business intentions suggests that the economy is slipping back into recession, with shrinking investment soon to be accompanied by a downturn in... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market well placed to withstand Fed hike The housing market should be able to withstand the first rise in interest rates for nine years. Mortgage applications for home purchase in December were at their highest level in almost six years. And... 11th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the Bank of Canada preparing another surprise rate cut? While the majority of investors expect another interest rate cut from the Bank of Canada by the middle of this year, most of them don’t realise just how weak the economy is right now and the urgency... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Debunking four myths about EMs Not so long ago we were among the most bearish commentators on emerging markets. But even we find some of the more recent gloomy headlines difficult to square with the evidence on the ground. In this... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the US economy heading for a recession? The latest incoming monthly data suggest that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to between 1.0% and 1.5% annualised. Added to the widening in corporate credit spreads, the renewed weakness in stock... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) Employment rose by a stronger than expected 22,800 in December, but the breakdown continued to reveal disturbing trends in private sector and higher paid prime-age employment, which are more accurate... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) The 292,000 surge in non-farm payroll employment, together with the 50,000 upward revision to the gains earlier months should put paid to any fears that, even if fourth-quarter GDP growth ends up... 8th January 2016 · 1 min read
