US Chart Pack Domestic price pressures building The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near-zero levels... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Feb.) The decline in the Conference Board measure of confidence to an eight-month low of 92.2 in February, from 97.8 suggests that the financial market turmoil earlier in the month is beginning to weigh... 23rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Did the US stock market send a false signal again? The US stock market has made significant gains since hitting a trough on the 11th February. We expect it to make more headway as the news from China improves, and do not think that its prior slide... 22nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is Mexico eating Canada’s lunch? Our analysis suggests that the weakness of Canadian manufacturing output is partly due to the knock-on drag from the collapse in the mining sector. In addition, however, Canadian manufacturers are... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Manufacturing still not in recession The dollar’s near 20% rise since mid-2014 has slowed the growth rates of both manufacturing output and employment, but there is no sign of any collapse that could drag down the wider economy. The... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What impact will lower oil prices have on the housing market? Low oil prices will act as a headwind to the housing markets of oil producing states and dent the demand for high-end homes from foreign buyers. But set against that, the money households save on gas... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) The pick-up in core CPI inflation to a three-and-a-half-year high of 2.2% in January, from 2.1%, illustrates that rising domestic price pressures won’t allow the Fed to leave interest rates at near... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) & Retail Sales (Dec.) Consumer prices increased by 0.2% m/m seasonally adjusted in January, as a sharp 0.6% m/m jump in food prices offset the gasoline-related 0.8% m/m decline in transportation prices. Added to some... 19th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 0.9% m/m increase in industrial production in January, which more than reversed a 0.7% m/m decline in December, was mainly due to a weather-related snap back in utilities output. 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Against expectations for a small rise, housing starts contracted for the second consecutive month in January. However, even though they were depressed to some extent by the snowy weather in the... 17th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed unlikely to follow others in adopting negative rates Although a number of other central banks have now adopted negative policy rates, the chances of the Fed following suit are pretty small. Even if US economic conditions deteriorated, we suspect that... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Dec.) The 1.3% m/m increase in manufacturing sales volumes in December is encouraging, but the broader picture is still that, despite a 30% depreciation in the Canadian dollar over the past four years... 16th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Market turmoil adds to downside risks to economic growth With the economy reeling from the collapse in oil prices, the rapid deterioration in global financial conditions couldn’t have come at a worse time. The balance of risks to our forecast that GDP... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Domestic price pressures continue to mount Futures markets now expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged for all of this year and anticipate a single 25 basis point hike next year. In contrast, we expect the Fed to begin raising rates again in... 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jan.) House price inflation slowed to 5.9% in January, from 6.2%, and the existing home-sales-to-listings ratio indicates that the pace of inflation will ease further in the coming months. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The markets may have decided that the economy is heading for a recession, but obviously no-one told US consumers. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
