US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Dec.) The growth rate of our M3 broad money measure slowed to a three-and-a-half year low of 4.1% in December, but the slightly narrower M2 measure increased by a solid 6.0% last year, while bank loans... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jan.) The increase in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence to a three-month high of 98.1 in January, from 96.3, illustrates that households are not buying into the pessimism in financial... 26th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Inflation to remain below 2% for longer The external deflationary pressure from the stronger dollar and lower commodity prices is persisting for longer than we expected. The lower profile for energy prices now means that headline inflation... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update A shaky start for US LNG The sharp drop in crude oil prices has led to markedly lower Asian liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices and poses a risk to the economic rationale of US LNG exports. That said, the flexibility of US... 25th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Policymakers stalling for time amid uncertain outlook Despite a rapidly deteriorating outlook, the Bank of Canada defended its recent inaction on interest rates on the basis of it not knowing the details of the upcoming Federal budget, due to be... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Slowdown in GDP growth unlikely to be sustained Our calculations indicate that fourth-quarter GDP growth slowed to only 1.0% annualised, largely thanks to a more modest 2.0% gain in consumption. The latter is hard to square with the continued... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Dec.) Existing home sales rebounded in style in December – recording their largest month-on-month gain since records began in 1968. The jump was due to the introduction of TRID disclosure rules in early... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Oil prices jump on Saudi comments and US blizzard After another poor start, the prices of industrial commodities ended the week on the up. The main positives were hints of additional monetary policy support from the ECB and the absence of any more... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Despite lower energy prices, the annual headline inflation rate climbed to 1.6% in December, from 1.4%, as the massive decline in the Canadian dollar continues to boost some prices. Core inflation... 22nd January 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil stocks rose last week, driven by a drop in refinery inputs. What’s more, despite lower refinery production, there was another large jump in gasoline stocks. However, demand for oil... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will new disclosure rules drive high-end cash buyers away? Experience from the UK shows that buyers of high-end properties will pay significant sums to protect their privacy. That suggests that new rules for Manhattan and Miami-Dade, which will force buyers... 21st January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada surprises market with no rate cut The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its key policy rate at 0.50% today doesn’t mean that further rate cuts are off the table entirely. The Bank sounded far more downbeat about the economic outlook... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed likely to take more cautious view of latest market turmoil The latest slump in commodity prices, the renewed market turmoil and the apparent slowdown in fourth-quarter GDP growth are all good reasons why the Fed might ultimately decide against raising... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Dec.) Even with the unseasonably warm weather giving housing starts a boost in the Northeast, across the country as a whole starts dropped by a marginal 2.5% in December. While that is something of a... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing & Wholesale Sales (Nov.) Although the rebound in manufacturing sales in November was stronger than most expected, it wasn’t enough to offset similar declines in the previous three months. Accordingly, manufacturing activity... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) Consumer prices fell by 0.1% m/m in December, principally thanks to a 4.0% m/m decline in gasoline prices and, with crude oil prices now below $30 a barrel, we can expect even bigger falls in the... 20th January 2016 · 1 min read
