US Data Response ISM Non-Manufacturing (Jan.) The decline in the ISM non-manufacturing index to 53.5, from 55.8 is disappointing, particularly as it continues a sharp downward trend from the peak of 59.6 last July. Fed officials will be concerned... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) A fall in mortgage interest rates helped to boost mortgage applications in January. And although we think rates will increase this year, a strong labour market and easing in lending standards will... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Dec.) While we wouldn’t place too much faith in December’s reading of a strong 1.5% m/m gain in house prices, the latest CoreLogic report continues the recent theme of gradually rising house prices as... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Mixed outlook for the major commodity currencies The recovery in commodity prices over the last week or so has eased the selling pressure on the dollars of Australia, New Zealand and Canada since the start of the year. However, we wouldn’t be... 2nd February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Demand for business loans slumps The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey points to a fairly sharp drop-off in the growth rate of loans to businesses, which suggests that investment will remain muted in the first half of this year... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jan.) The modest increase in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.2 in January from 48.0 is somewhat encouraging but, more broadly, the manufacturing sector is still struggling to cope with the stronger dollar... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Has household formation stalled? The sharp slowdown in household formation in the final quarter of 2015 reflected base effects, and is not a cause for concern. In any event, even though a lack of available homes will act as a... 1st February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty unlikely to clear for another few months The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely last week, but it was deliberately non-committal about the risks to the outlook. It's debatable whether the current uncertainty will... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Core inflation will fall further below 2% this year The sinking Canadian dollar has prevented the annual core CPI inflation rate from falling below the mid-point of the Bank of Canada 1% to 3% inflation target range, despite the worsening economic... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Nov.) After stagnating in October, the economy grew by 0.3% m/m in November, albeit partly on account of what we believe was a very short-lived rebound in oil production. As things stand now, we estimate... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q4 1st Estimate) The slowdown in GDP growth to a very modest 0.7% annualised in the final quarter of last year is a temporary blip. With employment increasing by a monthly average of 284,000 during that quarter and... 29th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects will temporarily depress wage growth Our econometric model points to a solid 210,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January, which should lower the unemployment rate to 4.9%, leaving it in line with the Fed’s median estimate of the long... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Dec.) The 5.1% m/m decline in durable goods was due primarily to a sharp decline in the notoriously volatile aircraft component. Nevertheless, the details suggest that equipment investment shrank in the... 28th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed doesn't completely rule out March rate hike The Fed certainly didn't rule out a March rate hike completely in the FOMC statement released today, but it was notable that it was no longer willing to describe the risks to the outlook as balanced. 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Did the Fed err in raising interest rates? The renewed turmoil in global financial markets together with the downward revisions to estimates of fourth-quarter GDP growth in the US have prompted claims that the Fed made a serious policy error... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Dec.) New home sales followed in the path of existing sales by surging 10.8% in the final month of the year. But while the jump in existing sales was due to volatility caused by TRID, the rise in new home... 27th January 2016 · 1 min read
