US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The markets may have decided that the economy is heading for a recession, but obviously no-one told US consumers. 12th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A closer look at financial conditions Financial conditions have tightened in recent months, as the dollar has continued to trend higher, corporate credit spreads have widened and stock markets have suffered a correction. Nevertheless... 11th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of crude oil fell slightly last week, while gasoline stocks continued to rise, albeit at a slower pace. The key driver of the dip in crude stocks was a sharp drop in net imports. A small... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Housing imbalances continue to worsen Nothing illustrates the regional divergence in Canada’s economy like housing. While house prices continue to surge in the already most over-valued markets in Vancouver and Toronto, Calgary and other... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yellen sticks to view that interest rates will rise gradually Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony to Congress today revealed that, while the FOMC might not be ready to raise interest rates for a second time in March, she still anticipates a “gradual” series of... 10th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales bounce back following TRID disruption After collapsing in November, existing home sales bounced back in December. That volatility was caused by the introduction of TRID disclosure requirements, which pushed some sales from November into... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inflation expectations – are they really falling? The slump in market-based breakeven inflation rates has raised fears that falling inflation expectations could trigger a deflationary spiral in the US. But breakeven rates are measures of inflation... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Revising, but not renouncing, our view of US Treasuries We have revised down our forecasts for the 10-year US Treasury yield. Nonetheless, our new forecasts still imply that the yield will climb significantly from its current level of 1.8%, as the Fed... 8th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Negative interest rates unlikely in Canada While negative interest rate policies are being adopted by some major central banks, economic growth and inflation in Canada will be buffered by fiscal policy stimulus and the past depreciation of the... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Yellen will reiterate “wait and see” message In her semi-annual testimony to Congress this week (to the House on Wednesday and the Senate on Thursday), Fed Chair Janet Yellen is unlikely to say that a March rate hike is completely off the table... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The weaker than expected 5,700 decline in employment in January, was a poor start to the year and provides more evidence that the economy is struggling to cope with the collapse in oil prices. The... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) Although the 151,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in January was below the consensus forecast of a 190,000 gain, the rest of the employment report was very encouraging, with the unemployment rate... 5th February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Is US oil production falling? US oil production has been surprisingly resilient since oil prices collapsed in 2014 as companies have slashed costs and jobs and concentrated on only the most productive sweet spots. In this Energy... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity stagnation is biggest medium-term threat Putting aside the short-term threats from slower global economic growth, the stronger dollar and tightening financial conditions, the biggest medium-term threat to the living standards of Americans is... 4th February 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Stocks of both crude oil and gasoline jumped again last week, primarily due to an increase in imports of crude and weak demand for products respectively. However, the weather probably bears at least... 3rd February 2016 · 1 min read
