Global Markets Update Yellen remarks underline the pivotal role of oil prices Despite the dovish spin put on Janet Yellen’s latest remarks, global markets will probably stillhave to contend with more Fed tightening this year. However, the prices of many commodities, including... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) We are not overly concerned by the slowdown in the annual growth rate of our broad M3 money measure to a five-year low of 3.5% in February, particularly not when bank loans are still expanding at more... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Does the decline in profits mean a recession is coming? The 11.5% decline in corporate profits last year, which included a 7.8% decline in the fourth quarter alone, doesn’t necessarily mean that a recession is imminent. Admittedly, profits usually begin to... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The rebound in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence to 96.2 in March, from 94.0, suggests that the rebound in stock markets more than offset the impact of higher gasoline prices in... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jan.) House prices in January increased by a solid 0.5% m/m at the national level. Rising demand and low housing inventory are combining to put upwards pressure on prices - a set of conditions we expect... 29th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Fed can’t ignore pick-up in core inflation much longer It is becoming increasingly apparent that many Fed officials are underestimating the degree to which inflation will rise in the second half of the year. Fed officials expect core PCE inflation will... 28th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Liberal’s infrastructure spending won’t boost economy The Liberal government’s budget plan to lift the economy over the next two years with close to C$12bn in infrastructure funding will be a tall task, one that we would not count on to produce much... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed adopts cavalier attitude to inflation rebound The downward revision to the Fed’s interest rate projections at the March FOMC meeting, despite little change in the economic projections, has prompted plenty of speculation that its “reaction... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 2.8% m/m decline in headline durable goods orders in February was partly due to a slump in the volatile commercial aircraft category. But even allowing for that, the details of the report suggest... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview US Employment Report Preview Our econometric model points to a 180,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in March. We estimate that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.9%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.4% m/m gain in average... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Have homebuilders shut out first-time buyers? In recent years, homebuilders have focussed on constructing more expensive properties. However, that primarily reflects builders responding to underlying demand conditions. So, for the most part, we... 24th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude oil inventories hit a new record for the sixth consecutive time last week as a surge in imports filled storage tanks. On the other hand, gasoline stocks fell sharply and US crude oil... 23rd March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal stimulus budget won’t boost economy The 2016 Federal budget delivered today provides only a modest fiscal stimulus response to the flagging economy. Despite the more dismal GDP growth outlook this year, policymakers weren’t comfortable... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for US equities? We have revised up our forecasts for the S&P 500 slightly and now project that it will make more headway after recouping all the ground that it lost earlier this year. Nonetheless, we don’t expect the... 22nd March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The large 7.1% m/m drop in existing home sales in February is down to chronically low numbers of homes for sale. With limited prospect of the supply situation improving any time soon, existing home... 21st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Soft patch in consumption only temporary Last week’s weaker than expected data on retail sales and the drop in utilities production in February suggest that real consumption growth has started the year on a softer footing than initially... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
