US Economics Update Strength of low-paid hiring may be holding down average wages The recent weakness of wage growth over the past few months is partly explained by a deterioration in the quality of jobs being created, which is also reflected in a surge in low-skilled labour force... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Feb.) Despite February’s decline in export volumes, earlier gains mean that exports in Q1 asa whole grew quite strongly, easily outpacing imports. Net exports likely contributedas much as 3 percentage... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Housing demand on the up The demand for homes is on the rise. With mortgage affordability very favourable, jobs being created at a decent pace and banks loosening credit criteria, it is no surprise that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Despite a small rise in mortgage interest rates the strong labour market, high consumer confidence and historically favourable mortgage affordability all combined to ensure that mortgage applications... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to shift on neutral interest rate outlook We expect the Bank of Canada to keep interest rates at 0.50% next week and maintain a neutral outlook for future policy changes. Despite the strong start to the year, policymakers indicated recently... 6th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Feb.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Mar.) The widening in the trade deficit to a six-month high of $47.1bn in February, from $45.9bn, means that net exports will be a drag on first-quarter GDP growth, which we now think was around 1.5%... 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Feb.) House prices saw another strong increase in February according to CoreLogic. And with demand set to rise further, but inventory still very constrained, further gains this year can be expected. 5th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Rebound in business intentions unconvincing The Bank of Canada's first-quarter survey on business intentions suggests that the worst might be over for Canada’s struggling economy, but we don’t anticipate any significant improvement this year... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Commodities hit by strong US data and Saudi comments Markets began the second quarter on Friday on a sour note, with sentiment undermined both by a weak Tankan survey in Japan and, rather perversely, by another robust Employment Report and a buoyant ISM... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What is behind the slowdown in consumption growth? The revelation last week that spending in January was much weaker than initially thought, coupled with the modest increase in February, means that real consumption growth probably slowed to around 2.0... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Our key calls for this year Despite the recent resurgence in economic growth, we still expect the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates again, albeit not until much later this year. While widening interest rate differentials... 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 215,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment in March highlights once again that, even though GDP growth has been underwhelming over the past six months, the labour market remains unusually strong. 1st April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) The 0.6% m/m increase in January GDP, which was double the 0.3% m/m consensus estimate, was a very welcome surprise, particularly as the gain was so broad-based. We are not convinced the stronger tone... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will worsening affordability halt the housing market recovery? Even with our above-consensus views on house price growth and interest rate hikes, a rise in earnings growth will help keep mortgage payments as a share of income below their long-run average over the... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Will the participation rate continue to rebound? The recent surge in labour force participation has been concentrated among low-skilled workers, which may be artificially depressing average hourly earnings. But with this trend unlikely to last and... 31st March 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth dragged down by Brazil Our GDP Tracker suggests that aggregate EM growth dipped at the start of this year, but this appears to have been driven by deepening problems in Brazil and a recent soft patch in India. China’s... 30th March 2016 · 1 min read
