US Economics Weekly Soft patch in consumption only temporary Last week’s weaker than expected data on retail sales and the drop in utilities production in February suggest that real consumption growth has started the year on a softer footing than initially... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Mar.) The decline in the University of Michigan’s measure of consumer confidence to 90.0 in March, from 91.7, illustrates that higher gasoline prices more than offset the positive impact to sentiment from... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally won’t be sustained The recent rally in the Canadian dollar, which has been driven by rising oil prices and downgrades to the outlook for US interest rates, is unlikely to last beyond the middle of this year. Admittedly... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook House prices set to rise by 6% in 2016 There has been no let-up in the very tight market conditions which have characterised the housing market in recent months. With housing demand rising steadily on the back of low mortgage interest... 18th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed dovish today, but should turn more hawkish later The Fed opted to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.50% today, while also lowering its projections for the pace of future rate hikes. Nevertheless, as inflation continues to rise and... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US inventories of crude oil rose for the fifth consecutive time last week, despite a fall in US oil production and an increase in inputs to refineries. What’s more, gasoline stocks declined again as... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jan.) The much stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales volumes in January is an encouraging start to the year, with the details reflecting stronger external demand and some resilience in... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Feb.) Despite lower gasoline prices weighing on headline CPI inflation, the much bigger story is the surge in core inflation to a four-year high of 2.3% in February, which illustrates that the Fed can’t... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Feb.) As expected, housing starts rose in February, following two consecutive months of declines. Homebuilders are benefitting from the combination of rising housing demand and a shortage of existing homes... 16th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Feb.) The February retail sales report was disappointing (taking account also of downward revisions to January data) and means that the risks to our forecast for first quarter-GDP growth of 2.5% annualised... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update People’s Bank of China now as important for markets as US Fed The March FOMC meeting is likely to conclude tomorrow with US interest rates left on hold but clear signals that hikes will resume soon. However, the timing will remain dependent both on future US... 15th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the end of the housing boom near? The housing boom has been a key support to the economy over the past few years, but its end is in sight. While media headlines focus on the continuing booms in Toronto and Vancouver, the fallout in... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is there a bubble in commercial property? It is questionable whether the surge in commercial property prices can be sustained. The rise in multi-family apartment prices, which explains a large part of the overall increase in commercial... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The weaker than expected 2,300 decline in employment in February and further uptick in the unemployment rate to a three-year high of 7.3% from 7.2%, provides more evidence that the economy is... 11th March 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Higher inflation will force the Fed to act soon We are often characterised as being “bullish” on the US economy, but our economic growth forecasts are hardly upbeat. Instead, where we really differ from the consensus is in believing that even... 10th March 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada interest rate cut still on the table The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold its key policy rate at 0.50% today doesn’t mean that further rate cuts are off the table, as it depends on the details of the forthcoming Federal stimulus budget... 9th March 2016 · 1 min read
