US Economics Update Will the Fed let inflation overshoot? Inflation is going to overshoot the Fed’s 2% target, let’s be clear. While we expect Fed officials to be fairly relaxed about that, however, we don’t think it means interest rates won’t rise at all... 19th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Are vehicle sales nearing the finish line? The slowdown in first-quarter real consumption growth is primarily a reflection of the big drop back in motor vehicle sales over the past couple of months. In contrast, domestic motor vehicle... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod’n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) At first glance, the reported declines in industrial production and consumer confidence suggest the recovery is losing momentum. But the remarkable turnaround in the activity surveys points to a mini... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) Even after allowing for the sharp decline in the value of petroleum sales, the 3.3% m/m drop in manufacturing sales in February was twice as large as expected, with the drop in sales volumes hinting... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Some things to keep in mind about Q1 GDP The strength of recent monthly GDP data has prompted some forecasters to revise up their growth forecasts for this year as a whole. But predictions of an acceleration in growth are, to our minds at... 15th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Mortgage applications are understating housing demand Mortgage applications for home purchase are barely half their pre-crisis levels. But a steady rise in the share of applications that are approved means active housing demand from mortgage-dependent... 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The more modest 0.1% m/m increase in March consumer prices, which was below the consensus estimate of a 0.2% m/m gain, was principally because of a 1.1% m/m drop back in clothing prices. 14th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy and markets The most likely outcome of the elections on November 8 th is that Hillary Clinton will be the next President with the Republicans maintaining control of both the House and Senate. But we wouldn’t... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada will cut rates later this year The Bank of Canada’s decision to hold interest rates at 0.50% and to remain neutral on the rate outlook was largely in response to the improvement in economic growth early this year, fiscal stimulus... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 0.3% m/m decline in retail sales was slightly weaker than consensus expectations and was mainly due to a 2.1% m/m decline in auto sales. More importantly, while the 0.1% m/m increase in control... 13th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is private investor demand for housing about to drop away? Housing now looks close to fair value, and the supply of distressed properties for sale has fallen. However, while they may struggle to find bargains, we doubt that private investor demand will dry up... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is this a temporary setback for the dollar? Three key developments explain the US dollar’s slide against other major currencies since its peak on 20 th January – higher commodity prices, increased appetite for safe havens and a scaling back of... 12th April 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Darker business mood at odds with recent GDP rebound Despite glimmers of a revival in production, the mood among businesses across most sectors and regions has darkened due to shrinking real incomes and weak domestic demand, with the low level of... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Potential growth still held back by productivity slump If sustained (admittedly a big if), the recent surge in labour force growth would mean that the US economy’s potential growth rate is arguably higher than most economists currently believe... 8th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update We need to talk about Q1 GDP growth Thanks to a markedly weaker gain in consumption than we were previously expecting, it now appears that first-quarter GDP growth was no more than 1% annualised. Following on from the 1.4% gain in the... 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Strong US home building to underpin the price of lumber A pick up in US single-family home building should continue to support the price of US lumber this year even if the Canadian dollar gives back some ground against the greenback. 7th April 2016 · 1 min read
