Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Apr.) The modest decline of 2,100 in employment in suggests that the economy is still struggling to cope with lower oil prices. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 7.1%. We still believe that the worst... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Incoming data point to second-quarter pick-up The incoming data were fairly positive last week. The rebound in the non-manufacturing surveys more than made up for the continuing softness in the manufacturing surveys, while the sharp recovery in... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US to regain momentum, euro-zone to slow The US economy looks set to regain some momentum in the second quarter after a weak performance in Q1 as the drags from previous dollar strength and the slump in oil prices continue to fade. But... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Apr.) The more modest 160,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April will have caught a few people out, after all the consensus forecast was as high as 200,000, but the out-turn was broadly in line with our own... 6th May 2016 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Will the US stock market run out of steam? Although the US stock market has rebounded in the past few months as the news from China has improved and the dollar has weakened, we doubt it will power ahead for three key reasons. First, we expect... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Is the worst now over for the manufacturing sector? While the drag on GDP growth from the manufacturing slump may fade in the second half of this year, the sector is unlikely to make any major positive contribution to the economy for some time yet... 5th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) & Productivity (Q1) The decline in the trade deficit to a 13-month low of $40.4bn in March, from $47.0bn, was largely due to seasonal distortions created by the shifting date of the New Year holiday in China. 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) Despite a 25% m/m rebound in crude oil prices, the much larger than expected merchandise trade deficit in March suggests that the underlying momentum in the economy was weaker than widely assumed... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.) Applications for refinance and home purchase both increased in April, driven in part by a drop in mortgage interest rates. While an expected increase in rates will dampen refinance activity in the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Mar.) Although the annual growth rate of our own M3 measure was a still muted 3.8% in March, the strength of M2 growth, at 6.2%, and bank loan growth, at 7.8%, underscores that there is nothing in the... 4th May 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) The combination of a steady rise in housing demand and very low levels of housing inventory is putting upwards pressure on house prices. While the very large 1.9% m/m gain is likely to be revised down... 3rd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update SLOS shows contrast between business and consumer lending The Fed’s latest Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) underscores that business investment is likely to remain muted for some time yet. In contrast, the consumer outlook is encouraging. 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing (Apr.) The modest drop back in the ISM manufacturing index to 50.8 in April, from 51.8, is a bit disappointing, but that April figure is still the second highest reading in the past eight months. At its... 2nd May 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Adjustment to low oil prices not going to plan Although the economy likely grew strongly in the first quarter, beneath the surface we aren’t convinced that the economy is still struggling to adjust to lower energy prices, despite the weaker... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Headwinds restraining GDP growth will fade in H2 Some of the headwinds that restricted first-quarter GDP growth to a paltry 0.5% annualised will fade in the second half of this year. But barring a miracle second-quarter rebound, it appears that GDP... 29th April 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Modest slowdown in pace of payroll gains not worrisome Our econometric model points to a more modest 170,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in April, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 5.0%. Otherwise, we’ve pencilled in a 0.3% m/m gain in... 28th April 2016 · 1 min read
