Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) The 1.0% m/m decline in manufacturing sales in May was only partly due to the Alberta wildfires and that nominal decline was flattered by a rebound in energy prices. In volume terms, sales fell by a... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Brexit will have limited impact on housing market The shock decision by UK voters to leave the European Union is being felt in the mortgage market. The subsequent sharp drop in 10-year Treasury yields has helped mortgage rates down to close to record... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Economic growth already fading again After a brief surge at the start of this year, GDP growth has already slowed markedly in recent months. (See Chart.) Unfortunately, the recent limited rebound in commodity prices won’t be enough to... 14th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada cuts GDP growth forecast The Bank of Canada shocked no-one with its decision to leave its key policy rate unchanged at 0.50% today, but we still anticipate that it will eventually be forced to cut rates again, probably in the... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) When the next edition of Charles Kindleberger’s Manias, Panics and Crashes is released , Canada’s housing market will warrant its own chapter. According to Teranet , the 11-city house price index... 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update Fewer disruptions to oil supplies should limit price gains The return of production from Canada and Nigeria along with a potential increase in output from Libya over the next few months should put some downward pressure on prices. 13th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys reveal improving labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the sharp rebound in June payrolls as evidence that labour market conditions continue to improve, which should generate a more pronounced acceleration in wage... 12th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Business investment not coming to the rescue The latest Bank of Canada surveys support our view that falling business investment, particularly in the oil and gas sector, will weigh on the economy in the second half of the year. Making matters... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumer spending will continue to drive GDP growth The latest evidence suggests that GDP growth accelerated to around 3% annualised in the secondquarter. Furthermore, the rebound in both of the June ISM surveys suggests that this strengtheningin... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (June 2016) The 700 decline in employment in June was below consensus expectations of a 5,000gain, in part because of a fall back in the number of public administration workers asthe majority of temporary census... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (June 2016) The 287,000 surge in non-farm payrolls in June suggests that the sharp slowdown in the preceding months was nothing more than ablip. Fed officials will want to see evidence of a more sustained... 8th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (May) & ISM Non-Manu. (Jun.) Despite the widening in the nominal trade deficit to $41.1bn in May, from $37.4bn, net trade probably still provided a small boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we suspect was close to 3%... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to act despite downgrade to GDP forecast Despite an apparent return to below-potential GDP growth and the financial market turmoil triggered by the UK's decision to leave the EU, we expect the Bank of Canada to leave its policy rate... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) The merchandise trade deficit was broadly unchanged at C$3.3bn in May, thanks in part to an upward revision to the April figure. Despite the disruptions to oil sands production from the Alberta... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Will single-family housing starts ever recover? In order for housing starts to make sustained headway, building in the single-family sector needs to rise. For that to happen, builders need to shift production towards lower priced starter homes... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) The impact from Brexit is being felt in the mortgage market. Mortgage interest rates have dropped on the back of a decline in Treasury yields, which has given refinancing activity a boost. Rates are... 6th July 2016 · 1 min read
