US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices / New Home Sales (May/Jun.) New homes sales have performed well in recent months, and now stand at their highest level for over eight years. But with housing starts stalling, inventory levels are becoming tighter. That implies... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jul.) The trivial decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in July left the index still at a high level by historical standards. It also supports our view that, after what could turn... 26th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Surge in real consumption drives Q2 GDP growth Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 2.5% annualised, thanks primarily to a massive 4.5% surge in real consumption. The latter would mark the biggest quarterly gain... 25th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strength of consumption Our calculations indicate that second-quarter GDP growth accelerated to a more respectable 2.5% annualised, following a disappointing 1.1% gain in the first quarter. But be aware that the BEA will... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Retail Sales (May) The surprisingly resilient 0.2% m/m gain in retail sales in May, which was above the consensus forecast of no change, means that monthly GDP probably only contracted by 0.3% m/m despite the disruption... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Dollar strength takes some steam out of prices With a few exceptions, the prices of industrial commodities have taken another hit this week, pressured by profit taking and renewed strength in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the ECB’s decision to keep... 22nd July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) Existing home sales edged out a small gain in June, helped by a rise in first-time buyer numbers. But the months’ supply of homes for sale has fallen to its joint-lowest level for 11 years, and the... 21st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update The outlook for mortgage rates following Brexit The downward pressure on mortgage interest rates from Brexit already appears to be unwinding, with 30-year fixed rates increasing last week from 3.60% to 3.65%. Given we expect Brexit will have a... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Improving data point to September rate hike The Fed is very unlikely to spring any surprises at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday 27th July, but a September rate hike is a distinct possibility. The statement next week... 20th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun. 2016) Although housing starts saw a solid rise in June, the bigger picture is that there has been no sustained upward progress in homebuilding activity for over a year now. But we suspect that as credit... 19th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will the number of non-resident foreign buyers continue to drop? As we had expected, the strengthening of the dollar over the past couple of years has weighed on the number of non-resident home buyers. But we doubt the Canadian dollar or renminbi will weaken any... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Prod. (Jun.) & Cons. Confidence (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m rise in industrial production was better than consensus forecast of a 0.3% m/m gain, primarily because of the stronger-than-expected rebound in manufacturing output. 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Participation rate will fall further The decline in the unemployment rate to an 11-month low of 6.8% in June, from 7.1% as recently as April, is not as good as it looks. It went down primarily because people gave up looking for work not... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Labour market nearing full employment The incoming labour market data, including the strong rebound in June payrolls, have confirmed our suspicions that the big declines in April and May were only a temporary blip rather than the start of... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Will the plunge in UK gilt yields last? In the wake of the UK’s vote for Brexit on 23rd June, long-term government bond yields have fallen further there than in other developed countries. (See Chart below.) Indeed, the 10-year Gilt yield... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected strength of underlying retail sales in June means that second-quarter GDP growth still appears to have been between 2.5% and 3.0% annualised. Real consumption growth will be 4.0%. At... 15th July 2016 · 1 min read
