Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul. 16) The acceleration in national house price growth to a six-year high of 10.9% y/y in July, from 10.0%, reflects a spreading out of the housing mania beyond just Toronto and Vancouver. The most recent... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul. 16) Retail sales were unchanged in July, as a rebound in motor vehicle sales was largely offset by a price-related drop back in the value of gasoline station sales. After a clearly unsustainable 4.2%... 12th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Brexit’s impact is already fading The impact of Brexit on the housing market has been short-lived and minimal. A widening in spreads meant that mortgage rates did not fall as far as Treasury yields, which have in any case since... 10th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Productivity slump even worse than previously feared The second-quarter productivity figures, which incorporate the recent downward revisions to historical GDP, reveal that the stagnation in productivity growth was even worse than we previously believed... 9th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is the rental market losing steam? Despite some signs that the rental market is losing momentum, low rental vacancy rates and the prospect of stronger growth in average hourly earnings mean that investors in residential real estate can... 8th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Export growth muted even without a trade war The economy’s reliance on trade with the US means that the current US presidential election campaign could be pivotal for Canada’s export outlook. The big question is whether a President Trump would... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Pace of consumption growth will inevitably slow The news that real personal spending increased by 0.3% m/m in June, along with the reported surge in auto manufacturers’ unit sales in July, implies that real consumption growth began the third... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) & Int. Trade (Jun.) The better than expected 255,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in July will renew speculation that the Fed might hike interest rates as soon as this September, but we still think Fed officials will... 5th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The drop in mortgage rates triggered by Brexit gave the refinancing sector a boost in July. But applications for home purchase dropped back, as tight credit conditions and a lack of housing inventory... 3rd August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (July 2016) After last week’s disappointing second-quarter GDP data, the very minor fall in the ISM manufacturing index in July should soothe fears that the US economy is heading into a more serious downturn... 1st August 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q2 1st Estimate) The disappointing 1.2% annualised gain in second-quarter GDP growth, combined with the downward revisions to gains in the preceding two quarters, make a September interest rate hike much less likely... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Weak GDP will give Fed reason to pause Despite the more hawkish language in last week’s FOMC statement, the GDP data have significantly reduced the chances of a near-term rate hike. The economy has been growing at around 1% annualised for... 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tax on foreign investors won’t pop Vancouver bubble The B.C. government’s announcement last week that it intends to impose a 15% tax on home purchases by foreign investors is unlikely to topple Vancouver’s housing bubble. 29th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Labour market remains in good health Our econometric model points to a healthy 190,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in July. As a result, the unemployment rate probably edged back down to 4.8%, from 4.9%. 28th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed edging toward a September rate hike The Fed was never going to provide a definitive steer on future rate decisions at this week's FOMC meeting, particularly not when Chair Janet Yellen is due to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium in... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Policymakers will struggle to boost economy The sharp drop in oil prices and the Canadian dollar have led to a rapid deterioration in Canada’s economic outlook, overwhelming the ability of policymakers to stabilise the economy with conventional... 27th July 2016 · 1 min read
