Energy Update Coal supply to fall further this year, but so should demand The rally in coal prices over the past month has boosted investor sentiment. Admittedly, production in China, the US and Indonesia has finally started to fall. But prices have now risen to levels... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May) CoreLogic reported a strong rise in house prices in May, in line with the recent run of solid gains. With mortgage rates now likely to stay close to record lows for longer, house prices will continue... 5th July 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Brexit vote doesn’t change the task facing the Fed While the UK Brexit vote triggered some initial volatility in financial markets, many of the adverse moves have already been unwound and overall financial conditions in the US remain considerably... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a 16-month high of 53.2 in June, from 51.3, was much better than consensus expectations and is consistent with GDP growth of a little more than 2%. Indeed... 1st July 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Brexit is the least of Canada’s worries The UK referendum vote to leave the European Union has triggered a renewed turmoil in financialmarkets, but we doubt the decision will damage Canada’s economy in any meaningful way. Despitethe strong... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The muted 0.1% m/m gain in real GDP in April, while in line with consensus expectations, is disappointing since it follows contractions in both February and March. Furthermore, the raging wildfires... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Marked rebound in payrolls might not be evident until July Our econometric model points to a 150,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in June, thanks in part to the return of 35,000 Verizon workers who were excluded from the payroll survey in May. Under those... 30th June 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US inventories of crude oil fell sharply in the week to 24 th June, on the back of constrained supply and higher refinery demand, but gasoline stocks rose again. 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity finally picking up A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very... 29th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity finally picking up A surge in new home sales in April, which was only partly reversed in May, suggests that housing market activity is finally picking up. Activity is being supported by an improving labour market, very... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The sharp rise in the Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence in June suggests that the recent acceleration in consumer spending growth is set to continue. 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Second-quarter GDP growth looks good Despite the apparent slowdown in the labour market, the latest activity data point to a solid rebound in second-quarter GDP growth. Growth in underlying retail sales reached a two-year high in May... 28th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Economy approaching full employment Despite the slowdown in the first quarter, the incoming monthly data point to a big rebound in second-quarter GDP growth and we still expect growth for 2016 as a whole to be 2.0%. The UK’s vote to... 27th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Impact of Brexit on housing market will be limited The sharp drop in Treasury yields following the decision by the UK electorate to leave the European Union is unlikely to trigger an equivalent drop in mortgage rates. At the same time, with the impact... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Wage growth shows “tentative” signs of a pick-up The growth rate of average hourly earnings has accelerated to 2.5%, from a norm of nearer 2.0% in recent years, and other measures like the Atlanta Fed’s tracker suggest that median wage growth is... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (May) The 2.2% m/m decline in headline orders last month undershot consensus expectations for a more modest 0.5% m/m decline partly because of a weaker than expected gain in the notoriously volatile... 24th June 2016 · 1 min read
