US Economics Update UoM Consumer Confidence (Sep.) The University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence was unchanged at a five-month low of 89.8 in September, although it is still at a level that, historically, has been consistent with real... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) The 0.6% m/m increase in sales volumes in July shows that manufacturing is moving in the right direction, but the broader pace of growth is still very disappointing given the strong boost that the... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug. 16) Although core CPI inflation edged higher in August, it has been broadly unchanged this year, suggesting that the Fed doesn’t need to rush to raise interest rates next week. 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Aug. 16) The weakness in retail sales and industrial production in August underline that the rebound in third-quarter GDP growth could be weaker than previously hoped, which is another reason for the Fed to... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Why are credit scores on mortgages trending up? Somewhat surprisingly, according to Ellie Mae the average credit score for successful mortgage applications has been trending up since the beginning of the year. But a closer look shows that rise is... 15th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Market conditions tighten as inventory falls The number of existing homes for sale has fallen to a 15-year low, which is both constraining housing market activity and putting upward pressure on house prices. But as new households struggle to... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed unlikely to hike rates again before December It is always possible that the Fed could surprise us with an unexpected rate hike next week, but we very much doubt that will happen, it just doesn’t fit Chair Janet Yellen’s more cautious style. At... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Aug. 16) The Teranet house price index shows the national growth rate climbed to a six-year high of 11.4% y/y in August, as prices continued to increase in Vancouver even after the introduction of the new... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Labour market slack no longer shrinking Since the start of this year the rate of improvement in labour market conditions has slowed to a crawl. While a welcome rebound in the participation rate helps to explain why the unemployment rate has... 14th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Uncertainty mounts over pick-up in GDP growth There is now a marked gap opening up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble still a tale of two cities The reported 23% y/y decline in Vancouver home sales in August unsurprisingly prompted claims in the media last week that the new foreign buyer tax, which took effect at the start of last month, had a... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.16) The 26,000 rebound in employment in August looks good at first glance but, following the 31,200 decline in July, that still means employment is down slightly over the past three months as a whole. The... 9th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (8th Sep. 16) US crude stocks fell by the second largest amount on record last week. However, this was almost entirely due to a drop in imports which may rebound next week. 8th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update JOLT survey reveals tightening labour market The rise in the job openings rate to a record high of 3.9% in July, from 3.8%, suggests that, despite the slowdown in payroll gains in August, labour market conditions continue to tighten, which... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada opens door to rate cut The Bank of Canada issued a relatively dovish statement today, warning that “risks to the profile for inflation have tilted somewhat to the downside since July”. 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Aug.) Despite a positive economic backdrop supporting housing demand, very low levels of housing inventory are putting off potential buyers. Mortgage applications for home purchase fell for the second... 7th September 2016 · 1 min read
