US Economics Update Trump, Yellen and the Federal Reserve If Donald Trump wins November’s presidential election, there is now a clear possibility that Fed Chair Janet Yellen would resign almost immediately, perhaps even before the mid-December FOMC meeting... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jul. 16) House price gains are picking up pace as buyers compete for a very limited number of homes for sale. At the national level, the 0.4% m/m rise in July was the largest for six months. And with supply... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug. 16) The drop in new home sales in August was smaller than expected, and comes on the back of an upwardly revised surge in sales in July. That has kept market conditions tight, which will weigh on activity... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Mixed signals surrounding strength of Q3 GDP growth A marked gap has opened up between the incoming expenditure-based data, which point to a healthy rebound in third-quarter GDP growth and the production-based business survey evidence, which has... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Would President Trump start a trade war? It is impossible to be sure what Donald Trump would actually do if he became US President but ourbest guess is that he would back away from his most radical proposals on trade policy. And even if he... 26th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed telegraphs a December rate hike The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.50% at last week's FOMC meeting, but it appears to be firmly on track for a December hike. However, the fed funds rate is likely to... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada quiet on monetary policy options In a strange speech last week, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz acknowledged that the so-called neutral real interest rate was now much lower than before the financial crisis. But in his prepared... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Aug.) & Retail Sales (Jul.) The decline in the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of core CPI inflation to a two-year low of 1.8% in August, from 2.1%, shows that the upward pressure on prices from last year’s slump in the... 23rd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug. 16) Existing home sales fell in August, as extremely tight market conditions outweighed any boost to housing demand from favourable economic trends. With the inventory of homes for sale at its lowest for... 22nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed on track for a December rate hike The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at between 0.25% and 0.50% at the conclusion of this week's FOMC meeting, but it appears to be firmly on track for a December hike. However, the fed funds rate... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (21st Sep. 16) US crude oil stocks fell sharply last week. However, imports and production rose whilst demand from refineries slipped back. Gasoline stocks also declined as demand jumped and output from refineries... 21st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Aug. 16) The annual growth rates of all the monetary aggregates accelerated in August, with a particularly pronounced pick-up in narrow M1 money growth, but bank loan growth has slowed slightly. The latter is... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug. 16) As expected, housing starts fell back in August. But more of a worry is that building permits fell for the second consecutive month, indicating that builders have yet to respond to tight market... 20th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surge in medical care prices is a dilemma for the Fed The big gap that has opened up between the CPI and PCE measures of core price inflation is now largely due to just one category, medical care. The Fed's preferred PCE measure of core inflation is... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Firms continue to hoard cash overseas The cash held overseas by US firms has continued to grow at a rapid pace, rising to almost $2.5tn in 2015. The substantial tax bill most firms would face if they attempted to bring this cash home... 19th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets still relatively sanguine about the election Hillary Clinton’s recent stumble, both figuratively and literally, appears to have thrown the US presidential election race wide open again. The conventional wisdom is that the markets could react... 16th September 2016 · 1 min read
