US Data Response Employment Report (Sep. 16) The more modest 156,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September, combined with the tick up in the unemployment rate to a five-month high of 5.0%, won’t stop the Fed from hiking interest rates at the... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep. 16) The massive 67,000 increase in employment in September will reassure the Bank of Canada that the economy is still enjoying a decent rebound following the wildfire disruption in the second quarter... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Election doesn’t seem to be holding back the economy There is little evidence that the upcoming presidential election played any role in the weakness of economic growth in the first half of this year or, despite the early optimism, what is shaping up to... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Internat’l Trade (Aug.) & ISM Non-Manu. (Sep.) Although the trade deficit widened slightly to $40.7bn in August, from $39.5bn, net external trade is now on track to make a big contribution to third-quarter GDP growth. Elsewhere, the big rebound in... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug. 16) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $1.9bn in August, from $2.2bn, was entirely due to price effects, with the real deficit actually widening slightly. Exports increased by 0.6% m/m in nominal... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) The 4.1% m/m rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in September does nothing to change the fact that mortgage demand has stalled since the start of the year. A lack of inventory is... 5th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug. 16) Even accounting for the fact that the first estimate of house prices by CoreLogic is likely to be revised down, it is clear the house prices are accelerating. After seasonal-adjustment prices surged... 4th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep. 16) After a sharp fall in August, the rebound in the ISM manufacturing index in September should soothe fears that the US economy is headed for a serious downturn. Nevertheless, the index remains at a... 3rd October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could the neutral rate be even lower? While the decline in the neutral real fed funds rate in recent years can be explained in part by the decline in potential GDP growth, there are other factors, including increased risk aversion, higher... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Trump’s trade complaints put Canada in the firing line During the first US presidential debate last week, Republican nominee Donald Trump predictably returned to one of the central themes of his campaign; that the US is being cheated by global trade rules... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul. 16) The bigger than expected 0.5% m/m gain in July GDP means that the Bank of Canada’s forecast of a 3.5% annualised increase for the third quarter as a whole now looks well within reach. However, it is... 30th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is Airbnb behind the high number of vacant homes? While the rising popularity of Airbnb may have worsened housing shortages in some cities, it is hard to blame the apartment sharing website on the nationally high level of vacant homes. Rather, homes... 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Stronger payrolls may not be enough to cut unemployment We estimate that non-farm payroll employment increased by a slightly stronger 190,000 in September, but this would probably leave the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. 29th September 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (28th Sep. 16) US crude oil stocks fell last week as net imports and domestic production fell. However, gasoline stocks rose – despite lower refinery output – as demand weakened. 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug. 16) Although durable goods orders were unchanged in August, the details of the report were weak. It now appears that equipment investment contracted in the third quarter, which means the risks to our... 28th September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Falling inflation adds to Bank of Canada’s concerns The fall in core inflation to a two-year low of 1.8% in August adds to the growing list of concerns for the Bank of Canada. The Canadian dollar’s sharp decline in 2014 and 2015 had kept core inflation... 27th September 2016 · 1 min read
