US Housing Market Chart Pack Market conditions tighten further A lack of inventory continues to drive developments in the housing market. The number of existing homes for sale dropped below 2 million in July, its lowest level in 15 years. Meanwhile, a surge in... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Weak survey evidence puts Q3 rebound in jeopardy The unexpected slump in the ISM non-manufacturing index to a six-year low of 51.4 in August, from 55.5, should all but rule out any possibility of a September rate hike, particularly as the... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jul.) The large 0.9% m/m gain in house prices reported by CoreLogic in July is likely to be revised down in due course. But with inventory levels at 15-year lows, the conditions are in place for house price... 6th September 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Prices get a payrolls boost A weaker-than-expected US employment report on Friday all but removed the prospect of a US interest rate rise this month, although we still think a hike is likely before the end of the year. The... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Does it make sense to raise the inflation target? The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting this Wednesday. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in its... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rise in labour’s share of income has further to run The gradual decline in the unemployment rate over the past couple of years has generated a cyclical rebound in labour’s share of income, which we suspect has further to run. At first glance, this... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Aug.) & Int. Trade (Jul.) The August employment report is not going to convince Fed officials to vote for a rate hike later this month, although an increase in December is still likely. 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (July) The decline in the trade deficit to a six-month low of $2.5bn in July, from $4.0bn, is encouraging news for third-quarter GDP growth, although the improvement appears to be partly due to a seasonal... 2nd September 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Aug.) The decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 49.4 in August, from 52.6, is another reason to believe that the Fed will take a cautious approach and delay the next rate hike until December. With that... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will be on hold for some time The Bank of Canada is unlikely to take any action at the upcoming policy meeting on 7th September. The 1.6% annualised decline in second-quarter GDP was worse than the 1.0% fall the Bank assumed in... 1st September 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Can land shortages explain faltering housing starts? According to an NAHB survey, land shortages are at their most severe since records began in 1997. Low interest rates may be making landowners reluctant to sell, while labour shortages will be curbing... 31st August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Slump in exports another devastating blow The big news in the last month has been a sharp move up in exchange stocks of copper and a renewed slump in tin inventories. However, the bigger picture is that exchange stocks of metals have not... 30th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Why is the inventory of homes for sale so low? The key driver of low levels of existing home inventory looks to be movers deciding to keep hold of their previous home rather than selling it. In turn, that behaviour has been encouraged by ultra-low... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Focus shifts to US payrolls Hawkish comments by some Fed officials and a slight strengthening of the US dollar ahead of Janet Yellen’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday weighed on the prices of most commodities over the past week... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Despite better June, GDP probably still fell sharply in Q2 Our calculations suggest that monthly GDP rebounded by 0.5% m/m in June which, if GDP in the first two months of the quarter was unrevised, would translate into a 1.5% annualised decline in the second... 26th August 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Gradual slowdown in pace of payroll gains inevitable Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payrolls increased by a more sustainable 180,000 in August. Otherwise, we suspect that after remaining unchanged in recent months, the unemployment rate... 25th August 2016 · 1 min read
