US Fed Watch Fed likely to delay rate hike until December The markets are convinced that the Fed will stand pat at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which concludes next Wednesday, and will instead raise interest rates at the final policy meeting of the year in mid... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Job gains mostly part-time positions for older workers The labour market appears to have come storming back in September, with employment increasing by almost 70,000 in a single month. Under the surface, however, labour market conditions remain weak. The... 26th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade still weak as Belgium blocks EU-Canada deal Notwithstanding one or two more positive signs, world trade remains in the doldrums. And the fact that the EU-Canada trade agreement may be scuppered by a regional Belgian government does not bode... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Oct. 16) Despite the decline in the Conference Board index of consumer confidence in October, it is still at a level consistent with annualised consumption growth of more than 2.5%. Furthermore, given that the... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The 0.6% m/m gain in house prices on the Case-Shiller measure in August was the largest for 10-months. Given very tight market conditions, that acceleration was expected, and further house price gains... 25th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Economy still struggling to shake off its malaise GDP growth does appear to have accelerated in the third quarter but, after a year of below potential growth, the economy is still struggling to shake off the effects of the stronger dollar and the... 24th October 2016 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling now “fair” value? Although sterling has fallen a long way since the vote for Brexit, the IMF’s latest forecasts for the UK’s current account balance suggest that there is no fundamental reason for it to bounce back... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth boosted by strong export performance The third-quarter GDP figures, due for release late this week, could provide a further boost to Clinton’s chances of winning. Although if our estimate that GDP growth picked up to 2.5% annualised is... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada still betting on soft landing for housing Although the Bank of Canada gave no indication in last week’s policy statement that it was considering an interest rate cut, Governor Stephen Poloz freely admitted in his press conference that an... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) & Retail Sales (Aug.) The recent softness in core CPI inflation could become a major concern for the Bank of Canada. The Bank was forced to cut its projection for inflation earlier this week in its new Monetary Policy... 21st October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Is the new-build premium really falling? The gap between the average price of new and existing homes now stands at a six year low. But that fall is mainly a reflection of limitations in the available data. There is little evidence that the... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Sep.) Existing home sales rose by a respectable 3.2% m/m in September, helped by a welcome rise in the share of first-time buyers. But with inventory levels still very low, rising housing demand is more... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Stronger dollar not enough to knock the Fed off course The recent strengthening in the dollar and rise in Treasury yields are unlikely to prevent the Fed from raising rates in December. The moves seen so far have been small, and with a December rate hike... 20th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) The better than expected 0.9% m/m increase in manufacturing sales in August, which translated into an even bigger 1.2% m/m gain in volumes terms, will provide even more reassurance to the Bank of... 18th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) Although industrial production only edged higher in September, the 1.8% annualised rebound for the third quarter as a whole provides further evidence that the economy has regained some momentum, after... 17th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Rising labour participation a dilemma for the Fed The marked slowdown in the rate at which the remaining slack in the labour market is being absorbed poses a big dilemma for the Fed. The standard unemployment rate has now been broadly unchanged at 5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
