US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Oct.) Despite the decline in October, the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence remains at a fairly high level by past standards and consistent with a decent rate of real consumption growth... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Recent job gains appear to be very low quality The massive 67,200 increase in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) measure of employment in September would seem to suggest that labour market conditions are improving. But under the surface there is a... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales & Producer Prices (Sep.) The 0.6% m/m increase in September retail sales was largely due to a rebound in motor vehicle sales, with underlying sales growth now at a three-year low. Real consumption growth was still between 2.5... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank will remain on the sidelines this year The Bank of Canada is unlikely to announce any major changes to either its economic projections or policy stance next Wednesday. The apparent rebound in third-quarter GDP and the surge in employment... 14th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report (13th Oct. 16) The negative impact on prices of a large rise in crude inventories was more than offset by sharp falls in stocks of gasoline and distillates as refinery utilisation dipped again. 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Sep. 16) The current madness in Toronto’s housing market will predictably be blamed on foreigners, but the near-record 16.4% increase in house prices over the past 12 months is mainly due to low interest rates... 13th October 2016 · 1 min read
Metals Watch What would a Trump victory mean for metals prices? We don’t pretend to know how the political race in the US will develop or who will eventually win the presidency, but in this Metals Watch we aim to shed some light on the potential impact on metals... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Update NFIB & JOLT surveys point to slightly weaker labour market The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys add to the recent evidence that labour market conditions have weakened a little over the past year, and that slack is no longer diminishing at such a rapid pace. 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Will Clinton’s proposals boost homeownership? Clinton’s housing proposals will not give homeownership much of a boost. The focus on down payments ignores the fact that it is the need for a high credit score which is preventing many Americans from... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Tide turning towards stimulus With central banks running out of firepower, public finances in a better state than they have been for a long time and sovereign bond yields exceptionally low, it is not surprising that some... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
Energy Update What might the US election mean for energy commodities? The initial uncertainty created by what would now be a shock win for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely be negative for the prices of industrial commodities, including... 12th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Tight market conditions drive up house prices A contraction in existing home sales, for the second consecutive month in August, failed to prevent a further decline in inventory levels. That lack of inventory is acting to constrain housing market... 11th October 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What might a Trump win mean for the US dollar? The heightened economic and geopolitical uncertainty that would follow a victory for Donald Trump in November’s US presidential election would surely see the dollar weaken against traditional safe... 10th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business outlook improves, but still relatively weak The Bank of Canada’s Autumn Business Outlook Survey shows that the drag from the collapse in crude oil prices last year is finally fading. However, there are still few signs that the recovery will be... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Will the latest mortgage rule changes derail housing? The housing market dominated the headlines again last week, with news of another sharp decline in Vancouver home sales in September accompanied by the announcement of a package of new measures on... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Election unlikely to cause major shift in fiscal policy At face value, there are substantial differences between the fiscal plans of the two presidential candidates. While Hillary Clinton’s policies would essentially maintain the status quo, Donald Trump’s... 7th October 2016 · 1 min read
