DM Markets Chart Pack Dollar strength and Treasury weakness likely to continue Since Donald Trump won the race to the White House, investors have had to adjust to the prospect of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy. Not surprisingly, the prospect has caused the dollar to... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Year ending on a positive note After accelerating a little in Q3, business surveys suggest that the world economy has continued growing at a fairly rapid pace in the final months of 2016. Labour market data for the US have been... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Oct.) The October CoreLogic report provides further evidence that house price growth is gathering pace. Even accounting for the fact that the initial estimate of a 1.5% m/m gain will be revised down in due... 6th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Would a lower corporate tax rate boost economic growth? We are sceptical of the claim made last week by Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin, that lowering taxes, particularly corporate taxes, will be enough to boost average annual... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Nov.) The unexpected 10,700 increase in employment in November was driven entirely by gains in part-time work, while the decline in full-time jobs provided futher evidence that the economy is still... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Nov.) November’s employment report wasn’t perfect, with average hourly earnings contracting by 0.1% m/m, but the solid 178,000 gain in payroll employment and the drop in the unemployment rate to a nine-year... 2nd December 2016 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch No interest rate cut until early next year The rebound in third-quarter GDP likely means that the Bank of Canada will leave its economic projections and policy interest rate unchanged next Wednesday. But policymakers will still have doubts... 30th November 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Corporate profits still point to sluggish economy The latest corporate profit figures show that, despite the energy-related rebound in the third-quarter, the economy isn’t out of the woods yet. While higher oil prices in the short term will help the... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Could repealing Dodd-Frank boost the wider economy? With the Republicans maintaining control of both Houses of Congress, Donald Trump’s election victory has raised the prospect that the post-crisis Dodd-Frank Act, which overhauled the financial sector... 25th November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Taking stock of Trump’s victory The prospect of a large fiscal stimulus under a Trump presidency has prompted us to raise our forecasts for US growth and inflation but we have left our economic forecasts for the rest of the world... 24th November 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Oct.) New home sales fell in October, as low levels of inventory continued to bite. And while a rise in housing starts could help, any boost to home sales will take time to manifest itself. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Trump and the fallout for EMs in five key points We’ve written lots over the past two weeks about Donald Trump’s victory and the implications for EMs. While much remains uncertain, in this Update we draw out five early takeaways. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Wage growth has further to rise We estimate that non-farm payroll employment growth picked up to 180,000 in November, which was probably enough to cut the unemployment rate to 4.8%. Annual wage growth probably held steady at a seven... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Oct.) The strong rise in headline durable goods orders in October was largely due to a surge in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category. That said, even excluding transport, the details of the... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Would Trump’s repatriation tax boost the US stock market? While Donald Trump’s plan to tax retained corporate income held offshore at 10% could encourage US multinationals to repatriate funds, we doubt that it would provide a big boost to the S&P 500. 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Is EM FX intervention a threat to US Treasuries? More emerging market (EM) central banks may step in to support their currencies by selling reserve assets if risk appetite takes another turn for the worse. But unless China is forced into aggressive... 23rd November 2016 · 1 min read
