Canada Economics Weekly Canadian dollar rally likely to fade before year end The rally in the Canadian dollar to a 14-month high of US$0.79, from US$0.74 a month ago, is likely to fade before year end. While higher oil prices might allow a temporary lift in the coming months... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) Although the headline inflation rate fell to 1.0% in June, from 1.3%, the uptick in two of the three core inflation measures suggests that some of the temporary factors restraining inflation are now... 21st July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Vancouver housing remains in the doldrums Despite widespread claims by housing pundits that Vancouver’s housing market is recovering from last year’s slump, the incoming data so far this month continue to show that home sales there are... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jun.) Housing starts surprised on the upside in June, with the 8.3% m/m increase breaking a three-month run of declines. While rising material prices dented homebuilder confidence in July, very tight market... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales volumes grew by 1.1% m/m in May, evidence that the industrial sector rebounded in the second quarter. While sales were boosted by a large gain in transportation, there were some... 19th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly One more interest rate hike at most this year The Bank of Canada’s new-found confidence in the economy and forecast rebound in core inflation have prompted speculation that interest rates might rise much higher this year. But with household debt... 14th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada gambles on rate hike The Bank of Canada’s decision to begin raising interest rates is a gamble that might have to be reversed before long. With the housing bubble already showing signs of bursting and household debt at... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun.) The national rate of annual house price inflation rose to 14.2% in June, from 13.9%, driven almost exclusively by a further acceleration in Toronto. But the worsening slump in home sales and higher... 12th July 2017 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are US equities actually undervalued? It is two decades since the Fed compared the yields of US government bonds and equities in its semiannual report to Congress, the next instalment of which Janet Yellen will deliver tomorrow. A... 11th July 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (May) Despite a big one-time jump in gold exports, the 2.0% m/m increase in export volumes in May, following fairly strong upward revised gains in the previous two months, builds an even stronger case than... 6th July 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Existing home sales delivered an upside surprise in March, reaching their highest level in almost a decade. Yet that rise needs to be seen in the context of the previous month’s sharp drop and sales... 21st April 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Federal budget avoids policy change on uncertain outlook The 2017 Federal budget delivered today, which was largely a wait-and-see budget, is understandable given the highly uncertain outlook on US trade and fiscal policy. Furthermore, the government is... 22nd March 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed likely to stand pat until June The statement released after last week’s FOMC meeting suggests that the Fed will remain in wait and see mode until it gets more clarity on the size, composition and timing of the fiscal stimulus being... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP prospects improve, despite trade policy uncertainty Incoming data indicate that the economy has emerged from the oil price shock, with encouraging signs in business confidence pointing to faster economic growth over the next six months. As things stand... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) January’s strong gain in non-farm payrolls suggests that the labour market started the year on a solid footing. However, the drop back in annual wage growth is another reason to think the Fed will... 3rd February 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump, China and the world in 2017 In this Focus we consider the outlook for the world economy this year and next, in light of two of the biggest concerns which have preoccupied investors in recent months: US economic policy under... 2nd February 2017 · 1 min read
