US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jan.) After jumping following Trump’s win in November, mortgage applications for home purchase held their ground in January. But a lack of housing inventory will act to constrain demand for home purchase... 1st February 2017 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Base effects hold down wage growth We expect a slightly stronger 170,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January. Base effects mean that the annual growth rate of average hourly earnings probably edged down to 2.8%, from 2.9%, but... 26th January 2017 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Trumped up? The world economy looks set to grow more rapidly this year than last. A substantial fiscal stimulus in the US will boost its growth rate, but will have only a limited impact on the rest of the world... 20th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Cut in FHA mortgage insurance costs will support house prices The 25bps cut to the annual insurance premiums for mortgages backed by the FHA will offset some of the recent rise in mortgage rates. But with inventory levels very low, the primary impact of any... 11th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack House price growth on the rise Housing demand was given a short-term boost following Trump’s win, as some buyers brought forward a planned purchase in order to secure a low mortgage rate before they increased further. But with the... 9th January 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico & US: the ties that bind This note is intended to help clients identify areas where the imposition of protectionist measures by President Trump might hit Mexico hardest. On the trade front, Mexico is especially reliant on... 6th January 2017 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed will have to step up the pace of tightening next year The lack of a sustained acceleration in wage growth suggests the Fed will be in no rush to hike rates again early next year. The stagnation in productivity, however, means that even the current level... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Outlook Housing market can withstand higher interest rates Trump’s win will have two offsetting impacts on the housing market. Mortgage rates have already spiked since the election and will rise further. All else equal that will depress housing demand. Yet a... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada downplaying housing risks While it continues to warn about growing housing imbalances and risky mortgage lending, the Bank of Canada still believes there is only a low probability of a major housing correction happening... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Nov.) The 18.7% m/m drop in housing in starts in November was largely expected given the surge recorded in October. In any event, the drop was concentrated in the volatile multifamily sector. With... 16th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Data Response UoM Consumer Confidence (Dec.) The rise in the University of Michigan measure of consumer confidence in December, to its highest level in almost two years, suggests that the post-election rebound in sentiment has been sustained. It... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Service sector growth to slow next year Despite the fallout from the slump in oil-related business investment, the service sector enjoyed relatively strong growth over the past two years, mainly because of an acceleration in housing... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly What explains the manufacturing sector’s decline? Despite claims that China is to blame for the five million manufacturing jobs lost since 2001, the evidence suggests that rapid productivity gains, driven by rising automation, have also played a... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is US dollar strength a serious threat to the world economy? Some have suggested that further appreciation of the dollar would pose a significant threat to the outlook for the world economy. In contrast, we think that the US currency is unlikely to strengthen... 9th December 2016 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Will Trump be okay with the Fed’s rate hike? The uncertainty surrounding next week’s Fed meeting is not about the out come of that meeting – a 25 basis point rate hike is all but guaranteed – but over President-elect Donald Trump’s potential... 8th December 2016 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Trumponomics, Reaganomics and the US dollar Although we expect the US dollar to continue to strengthen, we doubt that it will climb as high as it did in the early 1980s. Admittedly, the Trumponomics of the future may resemble the Reaganomics of... 7th December 2016 · 1 min read
