US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The small decline in the ISM manufacturing index in March, together with the weaker incoming activity data, will add to worries that the economy is slowing. But the index is still at a level... 2nd April 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household deleveraging likely to restrain growth The small income-driven decline in the household debt-to-income ratio in the fourth quarter of 2017 provides a glimmer of hope that the economy might be able to successfully grow its way out of debt... 15th March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Declining tax competitiveness hurting investment The 2018 Federal budget delivered earlier this week, which kept corporate income tax rates unchanged, failed to address the unease among executives about business taxation, in light of the large tax... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q4 2017) The weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter GDP growth of 1.7% q/q annualised, following a downward-revised 1.5% pace in the previous quarter, was driven by household consumption and housing which, with... 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Direct impact of US steel tariffs is small The imposition of US tariffs on steel and aluminium would have little direct impact on Asian economies. The bigger risk is that they represent the latest steps towards a damaging trade war. 2nd March 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Loonie a key beneficiary of US dollar’s malaise The Canadian dollar hit 81 cents against the US dollar earlier this week but, rather than blaming the loonie’s rally on the Bank of Canada and its recent interest rate hike, the rebound appears to be... 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Dec.) The gradual strengthening in core inflation evident in December’s consumer price figures would seem to justify the Bank of Canada’s recent decision to raise interest rates again. 26th January 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Foreigners aren't to blame for high house prices New housing data showing that non-residents account for only a small fraction of the housing stock and claims that these foreigners aren’t to blame for high housing prices have been meet with ridicule... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Oct.) The stagnation in monthly GDP in October, partly due to a significant decline in mining output, indicate that the economy lost some momentum in the fourth quarter. Even allowing for a rebound in... 22nd December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q3 2017) & Labour Force Survey (Nov.) Despite the further slowdown in housing, the continued growth in the economy in the third quarter, and further decline in the unemployment rate in November will undoubtedly strengthen market... 1st December 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Legalisation of marijuana not without risks to economy The legalisation and regulation of marijuana next year will not significantly improve the economic growth outlook, although legitimising a previously black market industry will provide a modest one... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Faster profit growth won't spur investment The faster growth in corporate profits in the third quarter is an encouraging sign for economic growth, but the details were less impressive. In addition, with oil prices still relatively low despite... 24th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Oct.) The drop in the headline inflation rate to 1.4% in October, from 1.6%, mainly reflects the drop in energy prices, which have already begun to rise again. More importantly, all three core inflation... 17th November 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Home ownership rate could tumble The unprecedented upswing in the national home ownership rate, fuelled in large part by a credit boom, appears to have peaked and is now going into reverse, even though the aging population should be... 27th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Canadian dollar likely to drop further next year After strengthening to US$0.82 in early September, interest rate differentials have pushed the Canadian dollar back down to US$0.79. We expect a further widening in rate differentials next year, with... 24th October 2017 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
