Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (June) The 2,200 decline in employment in June is not a concern given that the economy created an average of 50,000 jobs per month over the first five months of this year. That torrid pace was never... 5th July 2019 · 2 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations unlikely to keep supporting equities this year We do not think that the valuations of equities are unsustainably high. Nonetheless, we still expect that stock markets in the US and in the rest of the developed world will slump later this year... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary policy likely to keep “core” bond yields low We are more dovish than investors about the outlook for monetary policy in most developed markets. If we are right, “core” government bond yields are likely to fall, or remain very low, this year. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 1 min read
US Economics Update USMCA trade deal shows Trump can be tamed The new trade deal agreed with Canada and Mexico won’t in itself have much impact on the US economy. Along with the deal recently agreed with South Korea, however, it provides another example of... 1st October 2018 · 4 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Aluminium Production (Aug.) Global aluminium output surged by 4.0% y/y in August, the fastest rate in over a year, owing to restarts in the US and higher production in China and India. This fits with our expectation that the... 20th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack The resilience of the US stock market is unlikely to last Large-cap equities have generally continued to make headway in the US since the end of July, despite the fact that they have fallen in much of the rest of the developed world. Historically, equities... 4th September 2018 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Valuations don’t appear unsustainably high There is a widely-held view that the prices of many financial assets are bound to come crashing down sooner or later, because their valuations have risen far above the long-run averages to which they... 15th August 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household debt will remain a risk for years to come The news earlier this week that household debt had edged down to 168.0% of disposable incomes in the first quarter, from 169.7% in the final quarter of last year, was greeted by some as confirmation... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The unexpected 1.9% m/m slump in manufacturing sales volumes in April is a blow to the Bank of Canada, since it suggests that economic growth has not picked up much after the disappointingly weak... 15th June 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Household credit growth slows sharply Rising interest rates and the recent tightening of mortgage lending standards are now having a marked impact on mortgage lending, with the three-month-on-three-month annualised growth rate of mortgage... 29th May 2018 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly US keeps the heat on in NAFTA negotiations The NAFTA negotiations appeared to be winding down quietly since there was no longer enough time left for the US Congress to pass legislation before the end of this year. But President Donald Trump... 25th May 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank to remain on the side lines Although first-quarter GDP growth appears to have been stronger than the Bank of Canada assumed back in April, we don’t expect it to signal another rate hike is imminent at next week’s policy meeting... 24th May 2018 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How big is the threat of zombie malls in Europe? Dire predictions for US shopping centre closures appear relatively well-founded. However, for a variety of reasons – including more defensive lease terms, lower stock per capita and tighter planning... 3rd May 2018 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing market remains muted Earlier this week we learned that, according to Teranet, national house price inflation slowed to a two-year low of 6.6% in March, from 7.5% in February and a recent peak of 14.2% in mid-2017. Based... 13th April 2018 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Housing woes to keep Bank on the side lines The Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike interest rates again at its Governing Council meeting next Wednesday. Even with the risk of NAFTA’s demise fading and core inflation picking up, there is now a... 12th April 2018 · 1 min read
