Virus fears pull down interest rate expectations While the further spread of the Covid-19 virus increases the chance of interest rate cuts, the Bank of Canada seems likely to approach the issue in the same way that it approached the US-China trade... 25th February 2020 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller / FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Low mortgage rates and tight inventory have supported house prices in recent months, with Case-Shiller reporting a jump in annual growth to 3.8% in December, a 10-month high. But looking ahead... 25th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Rental growth coming off the boil in all sectors Economic indicators have improved recently, but remain at low levels, meaning that the recovery in GDP growth is likely to be gradual. As a result, occupier demand is likely to continue to slow... 21st February 2020 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Given the plunge in the pending home sales index in December, the 1.3% m/m drop in existing home sales in January was smaller than we had expected. But that implies sales will see a more substantial... 21st February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
Rail blockades to weigh on first-quarter growth Due to the ongoing protests that have crippled the rail network, we are reducing our forecast for first-quarter GDP growth to 1.5% annualised, from 1.8%. But providing the blockades end soon, growth... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Apartment rent growth to benefit from home shortage Rental growth of 3.5% to 4.5% y/y over the next five years is the key reason why we expect apartments will outperform other commercial property sectors. Stretched home valuations, tightening mortgage... 20th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Assessing the risks to our fed funds forecast In contrast to market expectations, we are still sceptical that the Fed will cut interest rates this year, but we agree with Treasury investors that rates are more likely to fall than rise over the... 19th February 2020 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) The fifth warmest January on record meant housing starts only reversed some of their December surge, with single-family starts remaining above 1 million annualised. That impact will unwind over the... 19th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Near-term shocks won’t knock economy off course Although the Boeing shutdown and the coronavirus outbreak pose downside risks to the economy in the first quarter, there are mounting signs that underlying momentum in the economy is strengthening. We... 19th February 2020 · 9 mins read
US Commercial Property Update What’s debt got to do with it? The worst commercial real estate busts have tended to follow a ramping-up in lending activity, driven by the availability of debt rising and its cost falling. However, regularly updated Fed lending... 14th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Update Could the coronavirus derail the housing market? The coronavirus is contained in the US, and with Chinese construction imports and non-resident buyers too small to have a meaningful impact, the housing market has so far escaped the virus largely... 12th February 2020 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rental vacancy rates set for a small rise in 2020 A decline in apartment completions helped keep rental vacancy rates low over the latter part of 2019. But strong multifamily starts over the past couple of years suggest completions will pick-up in... 11th February 2020 · 8 mins read
Labour Force Survey (Jan.) The further rise in employment, the decline in the unemployment rate, and the sharp rebound in wage growth in January all reinforce our view that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut interest rates... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jan.) The 225,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in January suggests that employment benefitted from the unseasonably mild weather (it was the fifth warmest January on record), with the construction sector... 7th February 2020 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Commercial property to outperform bonds and equities Over the next two years we expect US property to produce total returns of over 7.5% p.a. This would be stronger than any of the last three years and, more importantly, would be a better outturn than... 6th February 2020 · 3 mins read
