Latin America Economics Update What would the collapse of Nafta mean for Mexico? The immediate effects of a collapse in Nafta on Mexico’s economy might be smaller than many expect – we would probably nudge down our GDP forecast for 2018 by something like 0.5-1.0%-pts. The effects... 12th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Focus Core inflation likely to remain below 2% target Although some measures have edged higher in recent months, we doubt that core inflation will return to the 2% inflation target anytime soon. Even if the output gap closes by the end of this year, the... 11th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Tougher mortgage rules will only make matters worse Federal banking regulators decision to forge ahead with recent proposals to tighten mortgage rules further will only make matters much worse for the already faltering housing market. Needless to say... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) Although headline employment rose by a moderate 10,000 in September, the 112,000 rebound in full-time employment is a positive sign for income and consumption growth. In addition, the Bank of Canada... 6th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Aug.) The continued weakness in export volumes and softness in imports indicate that the pace of economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter. As things stand, we think the balance of risks around... 5th October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Government should tread carefully on tax policy The current proposals to raise taxes on small business owners will raise little additional revenue for the Federal government and, at a time when the US is considering slashing business tax rates... 2nd October 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Aerospace dispute raises spectre of trade war The US Commerce Department’s preliminary decision to slap prohibitive countervailing duties on Canadian aerospace firm Bombardier threatens to cause a major trade spat between Canada and the US... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Real GDP was unchanged in July, suggesting that the economy lost momentum at the beginning of the third quarter. That said, given the strong ending to the second quarter, we aren’t concerned by one... 29th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Household debt to weigh on economic growth Although the economy grew strongly over the first half of this year, that growth was still overly dependent on the heavily indebted household sector. That arrangement was possible when interest rates... 25th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Household indebtedness highest among G7 The strong GDP performance over the first half of the year means that Canada will probably finish at the top of the G7 growth ladder this year. More worryingly, however, it also takes first place when... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Aug.) Although the headline inflation rate rose to a moderate 1.4% in August, from 1.2%, the further increases in core inflation are broadly consistent with the reduced slack in the economy. This suggests... 22nd September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jul.) Manufacturing sales volumes fell by a larger 1.4% m/m in July, the second consecutive monthly decline, confirming that the industrial sector began the third quarter on a soft footing. That said, much... 19th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly At least income inequality isn’t getting worse The latest Census data show that average growth in the median total income of households was disappointing over 2005 to 2015 which might, we suspect, prompt renewed speculation of worsening income... 15th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Canadian dollar likely to tumble next year The Bank of Canada’s unexpectedly aggressive monetary tightening this year, which stands in stark contrast to the Fed’s over-cautious approach, largely explains the surge in the Canadian dollar this... 14th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets bracing for another interest rate hike The Bank of Canada’s bold call to raise interest rates again so soon after its well-telegraphed July hike caught some investors completely by surprise, resulting in a sharp increase in rate... 13th September 2017 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Aug.) The stronger 22,200 gain in employment in August is an encouraging sign for continued income and consumption growth in the third quarter. Meanwhile, the further drop in the unemployment rate to 6.2%... 8th September 2017 · 1 min read
