US Economics Democrats kick-start budget; Powell future uncertain The Democrats’ $3.5trn budget proposal is only the first step in what could be a protracted negotiation to a final bill, which will be roughly fiscally neutral. Meanwhile, another dovish showing from... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
US Economics Retail Sales (June) The 0.6% m/m gain in retail sales in June was a little stronger than we were expecting, but upward revisions to the decline in May take the gloss off that somewhat and, besides, with consumer prices... 16th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Home sales to ease even as mortgage rates stay low Even as mortgage rates have remained low, housing market activity has dropped back as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and a lack of inventory have put off buyers. We expect that dynamic... 15th July 2021 · 17 mins read
US Economics Industrial Production (Jun) The modest 0.4% m/m increase in industrial production in June was due to a weather-related spike in utilities demand and a recovery in mining output, with manufacturing output dragged down by another... 15th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Consumption to drive recovery The lifting of restrictions and ongoing policy support should translate into a sustained period of above-potential GDP growth, driven by consumption and business investment. We expect GDP growth of 6... 15th July 2021 · 19 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks fell for the eighth week in a row, and domestic production is now showing signs of life. This may add to the pressure on OPEC+ to relax output cuts more quickly and avoid a... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Bank tapers its asset purchases again The Bank of Canada’s decision to continue tapering its asset purchases today came as little surprise and we continue to expect the Bank to bring the QE program to a close by the end of this year. With... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Will booming house prices translate into rents? The recent surge in house price growth to record highs does not automatically mean rental growth is also set to take off. But a strong recovery in rental demand as cities reopen and households make... 14th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Manufacturing Sales (May) Manufacturing sales fell again in May as the global supply shortages continued to take their toll. While those shortages should ease in the second half of the year, the rebound in production is set to... 14th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics A whiff of stagflation Supply shortages will ease only gradually over the next couple of years, putting sustained upward pressure on core inflation and constraining real activity. We expect core inflation to remain above 3%... 13th July 2021 · 23 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The 0.9% m/m surge in both headline and core consumer prices in June was much stronger than we expected and illustrates that temporary supply bottlenecks stemming from the pandemic are still putting... 13th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Home sales fall further in June The local real estate board data suggest that home sales fell further in June but, with new listings declining as well, house prices look set to keep rising. 9th July 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Update Bounce in high-rise demand to give way to gardens There is mounting evidence that the exodus from cities is winding down. As economies reopen, we think that cities will come back to life, bringing a wave of new demand for high-rise apartments. But... 9th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economic growth outlook not quite as rosy now The drop back in Treasury yields has accelerated over the past few weeks, as persistent supply shortages and the spread of new coronavirus variants have raised doubts about the pace of real economic... 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
DM Valuations Monitor High valuations may hold back risky assets While we don’t think that risky assets are in a systemic bubble, we suspect there is limited scope for further large increases in valuations to drive their prices higher over the next few years. 9th July 2021 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Life science hubs set for a period of outperformance The pandemic has accelerated growth in scientific research and development, prompting a boost to demand in key R&D clusters. While we don’t expect the current rates of growth to be sustained, we think... 8th July 2021 · 3 mins read
