US Economics Durable Goods (Jun.) The June durable goods data were a little weaker than we had expected, but the further rise in underlying orders suggests that business equipment investment growth is slowing only gradually. 27th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Will the pandemic boost productivity growth? Productivity growth surged during the pandemic last year, but that was principally due to the disproportionate job losses in low-productivity sectors like leisure & hospitality, which raised the... 27th July 2021 · 19 mins read
Europe Economics Inflation won’t surge in the euro-zone like in the US We think that euro-zone headline inflation will rise further than most expect in the second half of this year. But rather than reaching the levels of around 5% seen in the US, it is likely to top out... 27th July 2021 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jun.) New homes sales dropped for the third month in a row in June, as homebuilders restricted sales in an effort to catch-up with the backlog of homes sold last year. But builders have reported continued... 26th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Why we expect a gradual recovery in lending The recent gains in lender sentiment showed the real estate recovery is heading in the right direction. As lenders gain confidence, standards should start to loosen, and industrial and multifamily... 26th July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta variant and fiscal limbo add to uncertainty Although the $600bn bipartisan infrastructure deal fell at the first hurdle in the Senate this week, centrist Republican Senators indicated that they would be willing to provide the support to... 23rd July 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Retail Sales (May) Retail sales fell again in May but the preliminary estimate suggests they rebounded strongly in June as non-essential stores re-opened. Consumers may transition away from spending on goods as the... 23rd July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Existing Home Sales (Jun) Existing home sales edged higher in June, but the bigger picture is that housing market activity is cooling. Booming house prices, rising mortgage rates and tight inventory will weigh on demand this... 22nd July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update New CPI weights will keep a lid on inflation The introduction of new CPI weights will prevent inflation from rising by as much as in the US but, with firms’ selling price expectations continuing to increase, the risks to inflation still seem to... 22nd July 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property When will office vacancy peak in San Francisco? Our forecasts, which cover landlord-held space, point to San Francisco vacancy peaking in 2025 at over 24%. Broker data, which also incorporates sublease vacancy, suggests much of that adjustment has... 21st July 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed not yet ready to conclude tapering discussion A few regional Fed Presidents are pushing for the Fed to begin tapering its Treasury and MBS purchases sooner rather than later. But with Chair Jerome Powell recently arguing that the recovery is... 21st July 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Delta variant adds to consumption headwinds Although 60% of American adults are now fully vaccinated, the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a slight rebound in fears over the spread of the... 20th July 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Housing Starts (Jun.) Single-family housing starts rose by 6.3% m/m in June. Despite this, even after the sharp decline in lumber prices in recent weeks there are still signs that supply shortages are holding back... 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Teranet House Prices (Jun.) House price inflation accelerated to 16% y/y in June but, with the sales-to-new listing ratio falling in recent months, price inflation will peak in the second half of the year. 20th July 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Lower Treasury yield forecasts support property pricing We have pulled back our expectations for Treasury yield rises this year and, to a lesser extent, next year. At the margin, this is positive for real estate pricing as it means that the property to... 16th July 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank’s new GDP forecasts too optimistic The Bank of Canada expects GDP to move above its pre-pandemic trend in 2023 but, given the potential for oil prices and residential investment to decline, we think its forecasts will prove too... 16th July 2021 · 5 mins read
