US Economics Update Labour shortages pushing wage growth higher The ongoing surge in both job openings and quits in June suggests that labour shortages are still getting worse. While the acceleration in payroll gains in recent months suggests that is not proving... 9th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Strong employment report points to a steeper US yield curve We think that today’s non-farm payrolls release, and recent news on the bipartisan US infrastructure bill, add some weight to our view that the past week’s climb in US Treasury yields and steepening... 6th August 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Exports heating up as housing cools There was more evidence that the housing market is cooling this week, with home sales slipping to 12-month lows in seasonally adjusted terms in both Toronto and Vancouver. The good news, however, is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of US earnings season so far While the earnings of firms in the S&P 500 have generally surprised to the upside in the second quarter of this year (Q2), we think the scope for further positive earnings surprises from here is... 6th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Infrastructure deal heads to crucial vote While many Republicans will balk at the cost of the bipartisan infrastructure package, which the CBO said would add $256bn (1.1% of GDP) to the deficit over the next decade, that is unlikely to derail... 6th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Employment Report (Jul.) The stronger 943,000 rise in non-farm payrolls in July and upward revision to previous months’ gains indicates that employment growth has shifted into a higher gear and that the drag on hiring from... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Labour Force Survey (July) The 94,000 increase in LFS employment in July was something of a disappointment given the lifting of coronavirus restrictions at the start of the month in many provinces, but the solid 1.3% m/m gain... 6th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics How could Biden reshape the Fed? Whether President Joe Biden chooses to reappoint Jerome Powell or to nominate Lael Brainard to be the next Fed Chair, it is unlikely in itself to have much impact on the near-term outlook for monetary... 5th August 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Although the headline data show bank loans stagnant, that is mostly due to the forgiveness of Paycheck Protection Program loans and mortgage securitisations, with the broader evidence pointing to an... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The widening in the trade deficit to $75.7bn in June, from $71.0bn in May, is unlikely to be sustained now that consumer goods demand appears to have peaked and surveys show demand for US exports... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (June) The merchandise trade position returned to surplus in June thanks to a massive 8.7% m/m surge in exports, which suggests that second-quarter GDP growth was even stronger than the 2.5% annualised we... 5th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities US biofuel mandates unlikely to boost corn prices A decision by the Biden administration to increase US biofuel mandates in 2021 and 2022 has the potential to be a gamechanger for corn demand. However, we think that this is unlikely, which is one... 5th August 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial crude stocks unexpectedly increased last week as net imports rose, but we suspect that inventories will fall back soon as demand for oil products, such as gasoline, continues to rise. 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update How do our key calls compare with the consensus? Our expectations for GDP growth and inflation this year are close to the consensus but, beyond then, we think both will be weaker than most expect. This is likely to feed through to a fall in the... 4th August 2021 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update What would it take to generate a much stronger US dollar? We think that the upside risks to our US dollar view have increased. On a trade-weighted basis, we forecast a ~4% rise from its current level by the end of 2022; this Update considers what factors... 4th August 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The recent decline in mortgage rates buoyed refinancing activity in July, but didn’t prevent another month of declining home purchase activity. While market conditions are tight, there are still... 4th August 2021 · 2 mins read
