Asset Allocation Update On the relative valuations of US housing and equities Despite growing talk of another bubble in the US housing market, its valuation remains far less stretched than that of the US stock market and is not alarming in our view given the prospects for... 18th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Office metro-level divergence to persist After a period of strong economic growth in H1 2021, with high inflation squeezing incomes and the spread of the Delta variant, the outlook for H2 is less positive. That said, we don’t expect this to... 18th August 2021 · 12 mins read
US Chart Pack Growth slowing even before potential Delta drag The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales last month illustrates the worsening drag from the sharp slowdown in real income growth, as earlier fiscal support fades and surging prices erode purchasing power... 18th August 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) Single-family starts edged back in July, although they but remain elevated compared to pre-COVID levels. Shortages in lots, labour and materials are weighing on builder confidence and housing starts... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) Inflation jumped to 3.7% in July as the coronavirus restrictions were eased and global supply chain issues pushed up goods prices. As the Bank of Canada’s preferred measure of core inflation was... 18th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economics Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jul.) The 1.1% m/m fall in retail sales in July suggests that the hit to real incomes from surging prices, along with growing concerns about the Delta coronavirus variant, is starting to take its toll. The... 17th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Jun.) Manufacturing sales started to rebound in June but, with the global semiconductor shortage set to ease only gradually, it is likely to be a slow recovery for manufacturing sales volumes. 16th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jul.) Outstanding real estate debt growth accelerated in July, supported by increases in residential, multifamily and non-farm commercial real estate debt. And with demand for loans growing on the back of... 13th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Bank hints at benefits of new policy framework A new paper from the Bank of Canada outlines some additional economic benefits of a new monetary policy framework, which could be a sign that there is a greater chance of the Bank adopting average... 13th August 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Inflation peaking; growing chance of earlier taper While the July inflation data this week added to signs that we’re past the peak of “transitory” gains in prices for used autos and reopening services, the pick-up in some of the more cyclically driven... 13th August 2021 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Focus The last house price boom? The housing market is highly cyclical, and the current price boom marks the fifth episode since 1970 where real house price growth has exceeded 5% y/y. But there are good reasons to think this will... 12th August 2021 · 19 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Last week’s fall in crude oil and gasoline stocks suggests that growth in demand in the US is continuing to outpace growth in supply. However, following a strong recovery from its pandemic-induced... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Home sales and house prices to moderate The share of households seeing now as a good time to buy a home has fallen to 39-years lows, as booming house prices, tight credit conditions and record low inventory have weighed on sentiment. But... 11th August 2021 · 9 mins read
Canada Economics Update What’s going on with wages? Distortions to the data mean it is hard to gauge the current pace of wage growth, but the business surveys suggest it will soon head back to pre-pandemic levels. Given the Bank’s upbeat view on the... 11th August 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Consumer Prices (Jul.) The more modest 0.3% m/m rise in core consumer prices in July indicates that the transitory burst of rising prices linked to reopening is fading and that, after falling to 4.3% from 4.5% in June, core... 11th August 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Growth in US oil production to remain sluggish While we expect both drilling activity and oil production in the US to pick up slightly over the next year or so, we doubt it will return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon. This should keep the... 11th August 2021 · 4 mins read
