US Chart Pack Data provide mixed signals on Delta impact The latest data provide mixed signals on the impact that the Delta variant is having on the economy. The high frequency indicators for high contact services suggest that activity levelled out in... 21st September 2021 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Aug.) A boom in multifamily construction has supported housing starts in recent months, with multifamily building permits rising to a 31-year high. On the single-family side, homebuilders have reported... 21st September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Modest policy loosening to follow election There has been almost no change in the distribution of seats in Parliament following the election, but it seems likely that the minority Liberal government will press on with a modest loosening of... 21st September 2021 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight Are the structural headwinds to inflation fading? The past few decades have been marked by a combination of sustained disinflationary forces, but the picture in more recent years, and particularly since the pandemic, looks more mixed. Globalisation... 20th September 2021 · 20 mins read
US Housing Market Update Stimulus cheques help explain house price rebound After beginning to slow at the turn of the year, house price growth has since got a second wind. We suspect the key driver behind that resurgence was the arrival of the third round of stimulus cheques... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Global Markets Update Inflation & the outlook for bonds in the US, UK & E-Z While we expect the yields of long-dated sovereign bonds to increase further across developed markets over the next two years, we think they will rise by more in the US than in the euro-zone and the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
DM Markets Chart Pack Japan’s stock market may not go from strength to strength We don’t expect the recent surge in Japan’s stock market to last, and think it will make much smaller gains over the next couple of years. 17th September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Three reasons why Chicago will emerge a winner Chicago’s office market will not escape the gloomy outlook caused by the shift to remote working. But we expect the low level of rents, the small share of jobs in the information sector, and a... 17th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Three key developments to keep an eye on Most commodity prices ground higher this week. And, stepping back, we think events this week highlight three key themes to watch in the months ahead. First, natural gas prices show no sign of easing... 17th September 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Delta impact evident in both CPI and retail sales While the data released this week showed retail spending picking up in August as price gains moderated, the figures are still consistent with a sharp slowdown in consumption growth in the third... 17th September 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Canada’s election unlikely to be a key driver of the loonie We doubt that the outcome of next week’s federal election in Canada will have much bearing on the economy and the loonie. Instead, we still think that bond yield differentials and oil prices will be... 17th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Post-election negotiations could lead to looser policy Whether the Liberals or Conservatives triumph on Monday, it seems likely that they will hold fewer seats than the current minority Liberal government. With the balance of power shifting toward the... 17th September 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Rising cyclical pressure will keep inflation elevated The spread of the Delta variant domestically has triggered a temporary reversal in the reopening inflation in high contact services, but its spread across other parts of the world will intensify... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Inflation to remain near 4% for next six months Recent developments have prompted us to revise up our inflation forecasts for the coming few quarters, although we still expect inflation to decline to less than 2% in the second half of next year. 16th September 2021 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Aug.) Even though the 0.7% rise in headline retail sales in August was much better than expected, the details were far less positive, with big downward revisions to previous months, while the rise in online... 16th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are we underestimating the global property upturn? The most recent commercial property data have been surprisingly upbeat and have raised the possibility that the recovery could be stronger than expected. But we think investors may have run ahead of... 16th September 2021 · 3 mins read
