US Housing Market Update Fall in first-time buyers will help boost inventory Soaring house prices and tight credit conditions have pushed the first-time buyer share to a joint six-year low which, alongside strong housing starts, has arrested the decline in the for-sale home... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Focus Which apartment markets will benefit most from remote work? We think that for the extra one million footloose American workers created by the pandemic, the cost of living has become far more important to their decision of where to live than in the past, while... 28th September 2021 · 18 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jul.) Annual house price growth set another record in July as low mortgage rates, past stimulus payments and a tight market drove values higher. But there are tentative signs that the market is beginning to... 28th September 2021 · 2 mins read
CE Spotlight Will US-China decoupling be inflationary? China’s integration into the global economy contributed to the low inflation environment of recent decades. But it was not the major driver and, in any case, China’s integration peaked several years... 28th September 2021 · 24 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Major Office Markets Outlook (Q3 2021) With absorption of landlord-held office stock set to remain negative for the foreseeable future, we continue to expect vacancy rates to climb and rents to fall in all six major office markets over the... 27th September 2021 · 16 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Aug.) The 1.8% m/m rise in durable goods orders in August was due to the ongoing rebound in commercial aircraft orders together with solid growth in underlying capital goods orders, with the latter... 27th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Labour shortages getting worse Labour shortages have intensified in recent months, which could both act as a brake on the recovery and lead to a stronger acceleration in wage growth. According to the CFIB Business Barometer, the... 27th September 2021 · 8 mins read
US Economics Update Debt ceiling crisis can still be avoided We still expect Congress to avoid a partial government shutdown at the start of next month and to raise the debt ceiling before a full-blown crisis develops in late October. But the negotiations over... 27th September 2021 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Aug.) An improvement in inventory helped new home sales rise for the second consecutive month in August. Admittedly, overall housing demand has eased in recent months and a rise in mortgage rates argues... 24th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Election solidifies larger role for government The federal election confirms that the government will continue to play a larger role in the economy than before the pandemic, which is one reason to think that inflation will be higher in the coming... 24th September 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Debt ceiling could still delay QE taper This week the focus was on the Fed, which appears intent on announcing a QE taper at the next FOMC meeting in early November. Next week the focus will shift to fiscal policy, with the Democrat’s plans... 24th September 2021 · 7 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Limited risks to DM property from Evergrande The Evergrande crisis has made waves in financial markets this week. But, while the developed property markets we cover may see some short-term upheaval, we think the impacts outside of China are... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) Retail sales fell in July, but that was mainly because consumers switched back to spending on services as the coronavirus restrictions were eased. In any case, the preliminary estimate suggests that... 23rd September 2021 · 3 mins read
CE Spotlight Will higher inflation force central banks to raise rates? We think a sustained period of inflation in the region of 3-4% over the coming years could be dealt with relatively easily by central banks. But if inflation were to rise much further than this... 23rd September 2021 · 33 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks have continued to fall as refinery activity has so far recovered faster than crude output following Hurricane Ida. And with demand already broadly back to pre-pandemic levels, US crude... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Aug.) Existing home sales dropped back in August as booming house prices and a lack of affordable inventory shut out first-time buyers. A small recovery in home purchase mortgage demand suggests sales may... 22nd September 2021 · 2 mins read
