Canada Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The large improvement in the trade surplus in August was much better than the consensus estimate of a small deterioration, but we are wary about suggesting that there are upside risks to our third... 5th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Oil prices to fall as market returns to surplus in 2022 We expect a gradual normalisation in demand growth and a rebound in supply will start to weigh on oil prices from the fourth quarter. So far this year, growth in demand has outpaced supply, helping... 4th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Will remote working migrants drive office demand? In-migration to southern metros with relatively low living costs and high desirability will be positive for office demand in those same metros. We think firms will be encouraged to set up offices in... 4th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Major Apartment Markets Outlook (Q3 2021) The apartment market is set for a stellar year. The reopening of cities is bringing vacancy rates down and pushing rents up, and strong investor demand has led to a sharp fall in yields. We expect... 1st October 2021 · 8 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar continues to march higher ahead of October payrolls In another volatile week, the US dollar continued to appreciate against most other currencies, reaching its strongest level, in aggregate, since last November. In part, the greenback’s rally may have... 1st October 2021 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Revisiting the relative valuations of US equities and bonds Although the pull-back in the S&P 500 last month was probably influenced by a sell-off in Treasuries (see here), we don’t subscribe to the view that stocks are in a big bubble that bonds are bound to... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly CMHC sounds the alarm (again) It’s hard to argue against the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s (CMHC) latest warning that house prices look vulnerable to a correction. Indeed, we expect prices to fall in several cities by... 1st October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly A week is a long time in politics Prime Minister Harold Wilson’s quip that “a week is a long time in politics”, which he made during one of the UK’s seemingly never-ending crises in the 1960s, aptly describes the Democratic Party’s... 1st October 2021 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The small rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 61.1 in September, from 59.9, mostly reflects an artificial boost from lengthening supplier delivery times rather than any improvement in demand... 1st October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Slowing global growth may continue to help the US dollar We think that the ongoing slowdown in global economic growth points to continued dollar strength, which suggests to us that there is significant upside risk to our already-bullish dollar forecast. 1st October 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jul.) Despite the smaller-than-expected decline in GDP in July and the strong preliminary estimate for August, third-quarter GDP growth still looks to be much weaker than the Bank of Canada predicted, which... 1st October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Delta continues to weigh on hiring We forecast a stronger 500,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in September. That should qualify as “decent” enough for the Fed to announce a tapering of its asset purchases at the November FOMC meeting –... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Withdrawal of CRB a risk to consumption Due to the still high household saving rate, we have so far been sanguine about the risks posed by the winding down of benefit payments to households. But with goods shortages limiting the scope for... 30th September 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A jump in crude oil production led to the first stock build in eight weeks. However, with output still constrained and demand set to remain strong, stocks are likely to remain low for some time to... 29th September 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We don’t think tapering is a big threat to equities We doubt ‘tapering’ of the Fed’s asset purchases over the next year or so would weigh heavily on the US stock market, and forecast that it will make small gains over the next couple of years. 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Aug.) Delta variant fears resulted in leisure and hospitality employment falling in 12 of the 30 metros. Of these, Atlanta, Austin, Charlotte and Dallas were the worst hit. Leisure and hospitality... 29th September 2021 · 3 mins read
