US Economics Weekly Different party, same infrastructure week debacle The weakness of third-quarter GDP growth illustrates that, while demand remains strong, the economy has hit a wall of supply constraints. Ongoing product and labour shortages mean that growth will... 29th October 2021 · 8 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) GDP growth was weaker than expected in August and the preliminary estimate implies the economy stagnated last month. With third-quarter growth seemingly much weaker than the Bank’s latest forecasts... 29th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Rising mortgage rates will cool house price growth Mortgage rates have risen to a six-month high and will increase further over the next couple of years. While inventory is set to remain tight, cutting the risk of an outright fall in house prices... 28th October 2021 · 18 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Delta drag easing, but shortages worsening We estimate that non-farm payrolls rose by a slightly stronger 300,000 in October, with the easing Delta wave of infections triggering some rebound in hiring, but worsening labour shortages are a... 28th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q3) Overall sentiment saw little change this quarter, but there was a notable reduction in office occupier demand and three-month rent expectations. The bigger picture is that, with no respondents viewing... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q3) GDP growth slowed to only 2.0% annualised in the third quarter, as the Delta wave of infections, the waning fiscal stimulus and shortages, particularly of motor vehicles, triggered a marked slowdown... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q3) Surveyors reported a continued improvement in occupier demand and investment enquiries in Q3, and notably the net balance for offices turned positive on both measures. That said, surveyors expect... 28th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update ULI Consensus Forecast (Fall 2021) Consensus forecasts for 2021 have been upgraded in all four major sectors on the back of strong investor demand. But tellingly the picture is more varied for 2022-23, where industrial and apartment... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US commercial stocks rose last week on a release of strategic reserves and a jump in net imports. Exports could fall further in the coming weeks given the need to rebuild stocks at the WTI Cushing hub... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank ends QE and pulls forward guidance on first hike The Bank of Canada called time on its QE program today and indicated that it could raise interest rates as soon as the second quarter of next year. The Bank’s GDP forecasts still look too upbeat to us... 27th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Inflation concerns to be offset by weaker growth The Fed is set to announce at next week’s FOMC meeting that it will shortly begin to taper its monthly asset purchases. But of more interest will be the extent to which the new statement reflects the... 27th October 2021 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Sep.) The weakness in headline durable goods orders last month was driven by another fall in transport orders, which mostly reflects worsening supply problems in the auto market. The strong increase in... 27th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Energy Update US oil production to rise but stay stuck in low gear We expect US crude oil production to rise by the end of next year, but remain well below levels in early 2020. What’s more, with non-US oil production set to grow at a faster pace than US oil... 26th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Aug./Sep.) The FHFA reported that annual house price inflation declined in August for the first time since May 2020. Rising mortgage rates mean that slowdown will continue, and we expect it to fall back to 3% y... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Sep.) Global steel output plunged in September primarily owing to a dramatic decline in China’s production. We suspect that China’s output will remain low for some months yet, which will act as a floor... 26th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q3 2021) The NCREIF index recorded a huge 5.2% quarterly return in Q3 thanks to further improvement in all sectors. With no sign of any let-up in investment demand, that puts annual returns on course to exceed... 26th October 2021 · 3 mins read
