US Economics Update Labour market conditions even tighter The September Job Opening and Labour Turnover survey shows labour market conditions are far tighter than the 4.6% unemployment rate suggests, and points to continued rapid wage growth. With... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Why we still aren’t convinced the S&P 500 is in a bubble Even though the S&P 500 has risen by almost another 25% or so this year, we are still not persuaded that the US stock market is in a bubble that is about to burst. 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Commodities Weekly OPEC+ unlikely to ride to the rescue anytime soon Despite falling short of its targeted increase in output once again in October, we think OPEC+ will continue to snub calls to raise output more rapidly. The week began with comments from the Biden... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Inflation rampant; Infrastructure week is finally here Headline CPI inflation hit 6.2% last month with core CPI inflation climbing to 4.6%. Energy prices look set to drop back a little over the next couple of months, but core inflation will breach 5%, as... 12th November 2021 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update Taking stock of earnings expectations in US & Europe We think expectations for corporate earnings in the US and most of Europe are unlikely to improve much further. One exception is the UK, where earnings expectations look a bit less upbeat. 12th November 2021 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Upside risks to October inflation lower than in the US The upside surprise to consumer price inflation in the US in October suggests there are also further upside risks in Canada, although the data next week are unlikely to show as large an increase in... 12th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Update “Excess” savings unlikely to be a game-changer We are doubtful that a significant share of households’ “excess” savings will be spent. Even if we are wrong, there are several other downside risks to the consensus forecasts for consumption growth... 11th November 2021 · 5 mins read
OPEC Watch OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (Nov.) Although OPEC oil production increased in October, it remained significantly below the group’s target. And with little prospect of a meaningful increase in non-OPEC output in the near term, we... 11th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude oil in commercial storage rose last week for the second week on the trot, helped by a planned release of strategic reserves. But the big picture is that stocks remain low by past standards... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) The 0.9% m/m surge in consumer prices in October illustrates that the upward pressure from supply shortages remains intense and that, even when those effects eventually fade, rising cyclical pressures... 10th November 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We think that the yen remains vulnerable to rising US rates We expect the yen to weaken a bit more against the US dollar as we think that government bond yields in the US will resume their rise before long. 9th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Bank on South Florida for office rental growth The faster-than-average recovery in financial sector employment in the Miami metro owes much to new office openings by banking and finance firms in the last 18 months. This has made Miami one of the... 8th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Commodities Weekly Commodity prices may have peaked Most commodity prices fell this week, adding to the sense that the recent rally is close to a peak (if it hasn’t peaked already). Either way, we think energy prices will be falling next year on weaker... 5th November 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed risking falling further behind the curve While the Fed announced tapering as expected at its meeting this week, the big surprise was how dovish the language in the statement and press conference remained, which suggests to us an increasing... 5th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Supply a problem for manufacturers not homeowners The survey-based evidence of elevated orders backlogs and the news that both imports and exports slumped in September illustrate the impact that global supply shortages are having on industry. But... 5th November 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) The stronger 531,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in October suggests the economy is rebounding rapidly from the initial Delta wave but, despite easing virus concerns, there was absolutely no sign of a... 5th November 2021 · 2 mins read
