US Commercial Property Update Downtown offices not losing out everywhere National office data suggest that suburban office markets have significantly outperformed downtown offices since the onset of the pandemic. But metro-level data point to a more nuanced picture in... 18th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Sep.) The 1.3% fall in industrial production in September partly reflects a temporary hit to mining and chemicals output from Hurricane Ida and a drop in cooling demand, as the weather returned to seasonal... 18th October 2021 · 2 mins read
US Economic Outlook Whiff of stagflation gets stronger The whiff of stagflation is getting stronger as shortages worsen, leading to surging prices and weaker real GDP growth. Shortages of goods and intermediate inputs will eventually ease, although not... 18th October 2021 · 23 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rising mortgage rates will help cool booming prices Mortgage rates are on the rise and we expect they will see further gains to end the year at around 3.5%. That, alongside relatively tight credit conditions, will help cool rampant house price... 15th October 2021 · 9 mins read
Commodities Weekly Energy price rally may spill over to other commodities Most commodity prices increased this week. Optimism over electrification, which was a hot topic during LME Week, seemed to feed through into higher industrial metals prices. But the prices of energy... 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
US Economics Weekly Labour force exodus shows no sign of reversing This week brought more news that acute labour shortages and the resulting surge in wages are rapidly feeding through into the most cyclically sensitive components of the consumer price index. 15th October 2021 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Higher oil prices not a game-changer for the Bank We are not convinced that the further rise in oil prices this week will be sustained. Even if we are wrong, we doubt that higher oil prices will cause the Bank of Canada to become much more hawkish. 15th October 2021 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The 0.7% m/m rise in retail sales in September suggests goods spending held up a little better than we had anticipated, but real consumption growth still slowed sharply in the third quarter. 15th October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We don’t expect tapering to be a key driver of the US dollar We doubt that the direct effects of the tapering of the Fed’s asset purchases will have much of an impact on the US dollar, and think that other factors will be more important in pushing the greenback... 15th October 2021 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report A large fall in the refinery utilisation rate drove another increase in stocks last week, although utilisation rates are normal for the time of the year. And with output set to remain constrained... 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Aug.) Manufacturing sales volumes were a bit stronger than we expected in August, but the renewed cuts to production at auto production plants in September suggest that sales volumes fell again last month. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update We expect the rally in commodity currencies to be short-lived Although we wouldn’t be surprised if energy prices remained elevated for a while, we still think they will fall back over the next year, weighing on the currencies of net energy exporters. 14th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update We think the sell-off in DM bonds will resume While the yields of long-dated government bonds in the euro-zone, UK and US have dropped back a bit in recent days, we think they will rise between now and the end of 2023. We expect increases in... 14th October 2021 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Deepening labour shortages point to lasting damage The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey released yesterday added to signs that labour shortages are still getting worse at a time when many of the temporary factors that were supposedly... 13th October 2021 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Sep.) The more muted 0.2% m/m increase in core consumer prices in September is not as encouraging as it looks, since a temporary Delta-related drop back in the prices of high contact services masked a... 13th October 2021 · 2 mins read
Commodities Update How high energy prices affect other commodity prices As energy prices hit multi-year highs, we look into the link between energy and non-energy commodity prices. It is clear that industrial metal prices track energy prices the most closely over time... 11th October 2021 · 4 mins read
