Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The ongoing supply chain disruptions and unseasonably warm weather explain most of the weakness of retail sales in September, but it seems likely that the winding down of fiscal support to households... 19th November 2021 · 3 mins read
FX Markets Chart Pack US dollar bull market might just be getting started The dollar has risen to its strongest level in more than a year and, though it is not our central forecast, we think the risk of a more sustained dollar bull market is increasing. 19th November 2021 · 10 mins read
US Chart Pack Fed’s inflation dilemma isn’t going away Whether Jerome Powell or Lael Brainard is given the nod over the coming days, the next 12-18 months are shaping up to be an unusually challenging period for the Fed Chair. The October data showed a... 18th November 2021 · 8 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Office and retail sectors turning a corner Economic growth slowed in Q3, but we expect it to pick up again in Q4. And with earnings growth and inflation at high levels, we see the Fed Funds Rate and 10-year bond yields rising over the next few... 18th November 2021 · 12 mins read
US Housing Market Update MBS taper won’t widen mortgage spreads The announcement that the Fed will start to taper its purchases of MBS this month is not set to widen mortgage spreads. The cut in demand will be gradual and offset by a moderation in the supply of... 18th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Inflation unlikely to catch up with the US Price inflation in Canada and the US followed a similar trend in the 2010s, but we think the pandemic marked a turning point, and expect the former to remain lower than the latter. 18th November 2021 · 5 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report The latest weekly data show falling crude and petroleum product inventories and a jump in implied demand. The strength in demand is somewhat surprising given the rise in gasoline prices, but we... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Metals Watch Higher inflation won’t stop the gold price from falling In this Metals Watch, we revisit the theoretical relationship between the price of gold and inflation, before assessing how this relationship has held up throughout history . The key takeaway is that... 17th November 2021 · 7 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Oct.) Inflation rose to an 18-year high of 4.7% in October but, as this was driven primarily by higher energy prices and was in line with the Bank of Canada’s forecast, it is unlikely to shift the timing of... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Oct.) Single-family starts dropped for the fourth consecutive month in October to a 15-month low. But we expect starts will soon turn the corner. New home demand is strong, lumber prices have eased back and... 17th November 2021 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor Net capital outflows from EMs have persisted in recent weeks and, looking ahead, a further rise in US Treasury yields could lead to larger outflows over the coming months. The good news is that –... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Oct.) The strong 1.6% m/m rebound in industrial production in October came as the unwinding of earlier hurricane-related disruption and a partial recovery in motor vehicle production boosted manufacturing... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Oct.) The 1.7% m/m rise in retail sales in October, driven by a similarly strong increase in underlying control group sales, suggests that real consumption will rebound to between 3% and 4% annualised in... 16th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Outlook good for mortgage delinquencies Low mortgage rates, strong earnings growth, plenty of cash savings and a surge in home equity have pushed the early mortgage delinquency rate to a record low this year. Most of those factors will... 15th November 2021 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Sep.) The renewed closures of auto plants weighed heavily on manufacturing sales in September. While many factories re-opened again this month, there is still a chance that overall manufacturing sales... 15th November 2021 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Oct.) Outstanding real estate debt increased for the fifth consecutive month in October, driven by positive net lending in both residential and commercial real estate (CRE) sectors. We think that this... 12th November 2021 · 2 mins read
