US Economics Weekly Fed becoming more hawkish by the day The continued surge in Omicron infections suggests that the disappointing December activity data will be followed by further weakness in January, but there are no signs that it will delay the Fed’s... 14th January 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Dec.) The 0.3% m/m decline in manufacturing output is probably a sign that Omicron-related employee absenteeism was already weighing on output by the end of last year. We expect an even bigger hit in... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) The 1.9% plunge in retail sales in December in part reflects what appears to be a problem with seasonal adjustment process around the holidays. The initial Omicron wave appears to have had only a... 14th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Estimating the carbon transition risk to property values Real estate potentially has a significant role to play in helping achieve ambitious climate targets. We have estimated the size of the risks in the transition to net zero for the commercial property... 14th January 2022 · 4 mins read
FX Markets Update The outlook for high-beta DM currencies in 2022 We think that rate differentials and commodity prices will be the key factors driving the relative performance of six “high-beta” DM currencies in 2022, continuing last year’s trend. We expect all... 13th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks slumped last week, reflecting a partial recovery in demand. However, we think demand will remain under pressure as COVID-19 cases rise in the US and as economic growth slows. 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily Sustained tightening by the Fed to drive Treasury yields higher Despite its slight drop over the past few days, we still expect the 10-year US Treasury yield to rise further by the end of 2022. 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Global Markets Update Revising our forecasts for DM 10-year bond yields We continue to expect monetary tightening to push up 10-year government bond yields across developed markets (DMs) but we now forecast them to reach a higher level than we had previously anticipated... 12th January 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Update Will the Bank of Canada hike this month? We expect the Bank of Canada to wait for the coronavirus restrictions to be lifted before starting to raise interest rates, suggesting it is more likely to begin hiking in March or April than at its... 12th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update What explains the surge in household employment? The incredibly strong gains in the household survey measure of employment over the final two months of last year, which have come at the same time as the more closely-watched payroll measure showed... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) CPI inflation hit a 40-year high of 7.0% in December and, although the headline rate has probably peaked now, core CPI inflation increased to 5.5% last month and will continue to climb toward 6% over... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Dec.) & Industrial Production (Nov.) Indian consumer price inflation took a big step towards the 6% ceiling of the RBI’s target range in December. We think it will breach the ceiling soon and that the RBI will remove some policy support... 12th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Comparing office occupancy changes across US metros Combining the change in leased space with the rise in sublease availability gives a more complete picture of the change in demand across office metros since the onset of the pandemic. This gives a... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Hawkish Powell consistent with March rate hike In his Senate re-nomination hearing today, Fed Chair Jerome Powell echoed the increasingly hawkish rhetoric coming from other officials. We expect the fed funds policy range to reach 1.00% to 1.25% by... 11th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rising mortgage rates to cool housing market in 2022 Housing market activity had a strong end to 2021, with sales and starts both rising. However, after a brief dip due to concerns over Omicron, mortgage rates resumed their upward trend and reached a... 11th January 2022 · 9 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Case for US equity underperformance is looking strong Although mid- and large-cap equities have fared better in the US than the rest of the developed world in most years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), we think the chances of it happening in... 10th January 2022 · 5 mins read
