Canada Economics Weekly Omicron a new type of challenge for labour market The Omicron wave will be characterised more by heightened absenteeism from work than previous waves. This raises the risk that the hit to activity will be larger than current restrictions alone might... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Omicron surging; Fed in hawkish mood The surge in Omicron infections has quickly developed into a full-blown tsunami, with the seven-day national average now close to 600,000 – three times higher than the previous peak last winter. The... 7th January 2022 · 8 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Dec.) While the 199,000 gain in non-farm payrolls once again disappointed the consensus, a much larger gain in the household measure of employment and a tepid rise in participation pushed the unemployment... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Dec.) The strength of employment in December is mainly because the LFS reference week preceded the onset of the Omicron wave. Nevertheless, the fall in hours worked is probably a taste of what is to come... 7th January 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Fed tightening may limit gains in US equities While we don’t think the stock market’s falls this week mark the start of a sustained rout, we do expect Fed tightening to curb the upside for mid- and large-cap US equities over the next couple of... 7th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Fed “QT” could include outright asset sales this time As hinted at in the December FOMC minutes, we expect the Fed will begin shrinking its balance sheet later in 2022. They would start by allowing maturing assets to run off, but if longer-term bond... 6th January 2022 · 5 mins read
FX Markets Update Taking stock of the US dollar’s prospects in 2022 Although we wouldn’t be surprised if the rally in the US dollar paused in the short term, we still expect the relative strength of the economic recovery in the US and monetary tightening there to push... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Key calls for US commercial real estate in 2022 The US economy is set to slow this year as elevated inflation and higher interest rates squeeze spending. Nevertheless, at the all-property level, we expect rental growth of around 3% y/y and NOI... 6th January 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Nov) The jump in the goods trade surplus to a 13-year high in November is another sign that the flooding in British Columbia had only a small impact on overall economic activity. It confirms that the... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Nov.) The sharp rebound in the trade deficit in November means that net trade is now on track to be a small drag on economic growth in the fourth quarter, rather than a small boost as we had previously... 6th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Material shortages hit housing completions Shortages of materials and labour over the past year have not stopped builders from starting a lot more single-family homes. But they do appear to have prevented them from finishing them. That implies... 6th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Omicron absenteeism a temporary economic threat The Omicron variant is less lethal than previous strains but, even if it doesn’t require the reintroduction of restrictions to mitigate the spread, the huge volume of new cases could still deal a... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell, but this reflected solid demand from refineries. Implied product demand – particularly for gasoline – slumped, suggesting that the public were cautious about travel... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Lessons from 2021 2021 proved a challenging year to forecast commercial property markets. Indeed, we underestimated the speed and size of the bounce back in performance, albeit by less than the consensus. But there are... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update 2022: High inflation to drive US policy tightening We expect inflation to remain stubbornly high in 2022, forcing the Fed to tighten monetary policy aggressively even though real economic growth underwhelms. The chances of additional fiscal stimulus... 5th January 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Dec.) After a brief dip due to concerns over the Omicron variant, both the 10-year Treasury yield and 30-year mortgage rate have since resumed their upward trends, with the latter rising to a nine-month... 5th January 2022 · 2 mins read
