US Economics Weekly Economy unscathed by Omicron In a week when we learned that producer price inflation, retail sales and industrial production all came in hotter than expected in January, interest rate expectations nevertheless declined, as... 18th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Update Recovering capex to put a floor under US oil output After it was slashed in the wake of the pandemic, capital expenditure by US oil producers is now rising. Given oil prices will probably remain high for a while, we suspect the recovery has longer to... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Dec.) Retail sales fell in December as the Omicron wave took hold but, rather oddly, the preliminary estimate suggests that decline was more than revered in January, even as coronavirus restrictions were... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Shift to South helps homes get bigger Working from home has increased the demand for larger properties, and in response the median size of new homes started at the end of last year was the largest since the start of 2019. Supporting that... 18th February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation is coming The further rise in CPI inflation to 7.5% in January and hawkish comments from Fed officials have seen markets rush to price in a series of aggressive interest rate hikes this year. But recent weeks... 17th February 2022 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jan.) Single-family starts fell for the second month in a row in January, but a rise in building permits to a one-year high means they will soon resume their upward trend. New home sales will be supported... 17th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial stocks in the US rose last week as refinery inputs fell and net imports increased. However, stocks in the WTI storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma, dwindled further, causing WTI prices to rise... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Weak investment highlights long-run challenges Business investment has been much weaker in Canada than the US since the pandemic, which helps to explain why productivity growth has lagged. There are reasons to be optimistic about the next couple... 16th February 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jan.) The 1.4% m/m rebound in industrial production in January appears to confirm that the Omicron wave has had surprisingly little impact on the economy. That said, the weakening global backdrop suggests... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jan.) The strong 3.8% rebound in retail sales in January is not quite as good as it looks, since it is mainly a recovery from the revised 2.5% drop in December. But with the modest decline in food and drink... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Jan.) Consumer price inflation rose by more than expected at the start of 2022 and the breakdown suggests that inflationary pressures are broadening, which adds to the pressure for the Bank of Canada to... 16th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Industrial Metals Update US steel prices still have room to fall The recent agreement between the US and Japan will allow the majority of Japan’s steel exports to enter the US without levies. We expect this increased supply will combine with slower growth in demand... 15th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response Commercial Property Lending (Jan.) Commercial real estate debt growth slowed in January, although that still left it at a decent level. At this stage it is difficult to be sure whether slowing growth indicates a slower pace of... 14th February 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Update Revisiting the case for a stronger dollar Although last week’s hawkish surprises from the ECB and the Bank of England weaken the case for further US dollar appreciation against the euro, sterling, and other European currencies, we are... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Commodities & US equities: 1970s or mid-2010s? We suspect that the pattern of returns from commodities and US equities over the next few years will more closely resemble that in 2014-15 – positive from the US stock market, negative from... 11th February 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Rising inflation adds to pressure on the Fed The news this week that CPI inflation climbed to a new high of 7.5% in January prompted another surge in interest rate expectations. 11th February 2022 · 8 mins read
