Canada Economics Weekly Terms of trade most favourable on record For Canada, the main impact of the Russia-Ukraine crisis so far has been to push up the terms of trade to the most favourable on record. That could lead to the Bank of Canada becoming more hawkish... 25th February 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Personal Income & Spending, Durable Goods (Jan.) The real economy appears to be in good health, suggesting that the Fed will push on with planned rate hikes starting in March, although the Ukraine conflict makes a 50bp hike less likely. 25th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Signs of life in NYC; Greater LA industrial set to boom This is our first US Commercial Property Metros Chart Book, which forms part of a set of publications that extends our existing analysis to a wider set of metros. As well as greater coverage of office... 24th February 2022 · 6 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose by more than the consensus expected last week, but this was never going to halt the ongoing surge in oil prices. With all eyes now on the potential fallout from a Russian invasion... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jan.) After two strong months new home sales edged back in January and may dip further early in the year as the surge in borrowers who sought to buy prior to further interest rate rises washes through. But... 24th February 2022 · 2 mins read
US Employment Report Preview A strong month for payrolls as Omicron fades Reflecting the stronger trend in employment growth apparent in the revised payroll data and the collapse in Omicron cases in February, we expect non-farm payrolls to rise by 600,000 this month. 24th February 2022 · 3 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank of Canada to hike rates and start QT We expect the Bank of Canada to kick off its tightening cycle next week with a 25bp rate hike and an announcement that it will begin quantitative tightening. Amid signs of broadening inflationary... 23rd February 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update State & local spending won’t replace federal stimulus The strong finances of state & local governments suggest that they will continue to increase spending at a rapid pace this year. But that won’t come close to matching the huge economic boost from the... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Inflationary pressures broadening The evidence of broadening inflationary pressures and the further rise in oil prices suggest that the balance of risks to our inflation forecast lies to the upside. The January consumer price data... 23rd February 2022 · 8 mins read
Global Markets Update Could the US stock market rely on a “Powell Put”? While the mood seems to have improved a little at the time of writing, the S&P 500 closed yesterday more than 10% lower than its recent peak at the start of the year, satisfying the criteria for a... 23rd February 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US yield curve is casting doubt on our equity vs. bond call Our view that the US stock market will outperform Treasuries again this year is being called into question by a flattening of the yield curve. Nonetheless, we are not anticipating that it will invert... 23rd February 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Dec.) Annual house price growth held steady in December, with prices up 18.8% over 2021. But with mortgage rates now at their highest since July 2019, affordability constraints will soon cut the amount... 22nd February 2022 · 2 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap US dollar see-saws on Ukraine risk & FOMC minutes Although it has rebounded today, the US dollar lost a little ground against most major currencies over the week as a whole, as the FOMC minutes prompted a scaling back of market expectations for Fed... 18th February 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jan.) Existing home sales jumped 6.7% m/m in January, but that gain is likely to prove short-lived. Strong activity over the turn of the year is due to households rushing to buy to lock in a low mortgage... 18th February 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to begin quantitative tightening in March Communications from the Bank of Canada this week suggest that, as well as raising interest rates next month, the Bank will also begin quantitative tightening (QT). With inflationary pressures... 18th February 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Chart Pack Record investment highlights market momentum While economic indicators point to slower growth this year, investors have so far been unperturbed, piling into the market in Q4 and driving record quarterly and annual investment totals. That was led... 18th February 2022 · 9 mins read
