US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Nov.) A fall in mortgage rates from recent 20-year highs helped home purchase applications rise for the first time in eight months in November. However, while we expect mortgage rates to continue to trend... 7th December 2022 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Peak in rates coming into view The Fed is set to slow the pace of tightening with a 50bp rate hike at its meeting next week. Chair Jerome Powell will seek to ensure the move isn’t interpreted as a dovish ‘pivot’, and the Fed’s new... 7th December 2022 · 8 mins read
Capital Daily Why this might have been another false start for the S&P 500 Although the 10-year Treasury yield has already dropped by roughly 60bp since the release of October’s CPI report on 10th November, we still see scope for it to end 2023 a bit lower than its current... 6th December 2022 · 6 mins read
US Economics Update A tale of two labour markets The better-than-expected 263,000 gain in non-farm payroll employment suggests it’s still the best of times in the labour market but, digging below the surface, there are worrying signs that it could... 6th December 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The essentially unchanged level of export volumes in October, despite big gains in agricultural and pharmaceutical exports, suggests the sector is struggling amid weaker global demand. With the drop... 6th December 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Valuation scores at a turning point Property valuation scores fell further in Q3 as rises in alternative asset yields outweighed the marginal increase in all-property yields, but alternative asset yields have dropped back in Q4 to-date... 6th December 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Oct.) The trade deficit widened to $78.2bn in October, from $74.1bn, as the weakness in global demand began to weigh on exports, which declined by $1.9bn. At the same time, imports increased by $2.4bn, as a... 6th December 2022 · 2 mins read
Event Drop-In: Fed, ECB and BoE December meetings – A pivotal year for policy ends 1671116400 The last big central bank decisions of 2022 resulted in another batch of hefty rate hikes – if smaller than recent – but also provided important signals about the direction of policymaking in the c
US Economic Outlook Inflation to fall rapidly in 2023, as recession bites We expect the lagged impact of higher interest rates to push the real economy into a mild recession next year. Although that downturn will be accompanied by only a modest rebound in the unemployment... 5th December 2022 · 24 mins read
FX Markets Weekly Wrap Dollar’s struggles continue on Powell’s mixed messages Today’s US non-farm payrolls data provided some relief to the US dollar, but it still looks set to end the week lower against most major currencies. This weakness mostly reflects the market reaction... 2nd December 2022 · 10 mins read
Capital Daily Strong payroll numbers don’t change our view of Treasuries We still think that the 10-year Treasury yield will end next year lower than it is now, despite the latest US employment data. 2nd December 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly GDP revisions unlikely to change things for the Bank The national accounts data provided two pieces of good news this week, with revisions to the historical series and stronger-than-expected third-quarter growth leaving GDP higher than expected. While... 2nd December 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Global downturn taking its toll on exports With weaker growth overseas and the drag from the stronger dollar now pushing exports lower, the resilience of consumption is the only thing keeping the economy from falling into recession. 2nd December 2022 · 7 mins read
US Housing Market Update Demand for all housing tenures to drop back Our forecast for a drop in house prices means renting looks a better option than buying for any holding period under 10 years. While this will encourage some potential buyers to rent instead, we doubt... 2nd December 2022 · 3 mins read
