Canada Economics Weekly Bank to be more aggressive amid booming jobs market The surprisingly strong rise in employment in February reduces the downside risks to near-term economic activity from higher energy prices and reinforces our view that the Bank of Canada will now hike... 11th March 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to kick off tightening cycle We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and, despite the war in Ukraine, to unveil new projections showing at least five interest rate hikes this year in total. 11th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Feb.) The labour market boom resumed in February and the odds of a sharp acceleration in wage growth are rising, which would add to the pressure for the Bank of Canada to continue raising interest rates. 11th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Rise in mortgage rates cools housing market activity A rise in mortgage rates to their highest since May 2019 has cooled housing market activity, with mortgage applications for home purchase dropping to a 31-month low in the last week of February... 11th March 2022 · 9 mins read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Rising energy prices pushed the CPI inflation rate up to a 40-year high of 7.9% in February and, given the spike in crude oil and gasoline prices since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it will climb well... 10th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Update Current account set for largest surplus since 2006 The surge in commodity prices means that, after ending last year in deficit, the current account is set to move into a surplus of around 1.5% of GDP in the first half of this year. 10th March 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Tentative easing in labour shortages Both job openings and quits have fallen back slightly over the past several months, which suggests that wage growth and underlying inflationary pressures should soon stabilise. 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks in the US continued to fall last week and are now at a multi-year low for this time of year. The sharp drop in product stocks points to panic buying by consumers, while domestic crude... 9th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update War, sanctions, and the resilience of the S&P 500 The US stock market has so far held up fairly well despite the Russia-Ukraine war. We think it will probably manage to make small gains over the rest of the year, although there are clear downside... 9th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed to proceed cautiously despite war in Ukraine We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 25bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and, despite the war in Ukraine, to unveil new projections showing five interest rate hikes for this year in total. We also... 9th March 2022 · 8 mins read
Asset Allocation Update What to make of the recent outperformance of US equities The war in Ukraine has challenged our view that US equities will underperform those in other developed markets over the next few years. We are not yet ready to abandon this view while the outlook is... 8th March 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The increase in the trade deficit to a record $89.7bn in January, from $82.0bn, means that net trade is on track to subtract close to 2%-pts from annualised first-quarter GDP growth, which we expect... 8th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The goods trade balance moved back to a surplus of more than $2bn in January and, based on the recent broad gains in commodity prices, it is likely to hit close to $5bn this month. If that were... 8th March 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Surging energy prices will add to inflation Surging energy prices will push inflation even higher in the next month or two but, unlike in Europe, the fallout on the real economy should be relatively modest, allowing the Fed to push ahead with... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Following first rate hike, QT will be “next step” We expect the Bank of Canada to follow its interest rate hike this week with another one in April, when the Bank also seems likely to begin quantitative tightening. Drop-In (8 March, 10:00 EST/15:00... 4th March 2022 · 6 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Feb.) The stronger than expected 678,000 gain in non-farm payrolls in February and upward revisions to previous months gains is another sign that the real economy has considerable momentum, with the Omicron... 4th March 2022 · 2 mins read
