US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Feb.) The jobs recovery continued in February, for both total employment and office-based roles. But the divergence in performance of the last two years is persisting, reinforcing our view that many of the... 6th April 2022 · 3 mins read
Asset Allocation Update US yield curve and equities dancing to different tunes The resilience of the US stock market over the past month or so is hard to square with recent inversions in parts of the US Treasury yield curve. While we do not think that these inversions... 6th April 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Mar.) Mortgage rates continue their upward climb in March, reaching a 40-month high of 4.9% by the end of the month. As yet, that has done little to cut home purchase demand. Indeed, applications saw a... 6th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) Although the nominal trade deficit was unchanged at $89.2bn in February specifically, the recent weakness of real exports suggests that net trade was a substantial drag on first-quarter GDP growth. 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (Feb) The goods trade surplus unexpectedly narrowed in February but, with commodity prices rising strongly since then and some of the jump in imports set to be reversed, it will rebound in March. 5th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q1) The Bank of Canada’s latest quarterly surveys suggest that firms’ and consumers’ long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored, which the Bank could use to justify a slower tightening cycle... 4th April 2022 · 4 mins read
US Economics Weekly Long rates rising but still low, particularly in real terms The inversion of the 10y-2y Treasury yield spread this week led to predictable speculation that the Fed’s interest rate hikes would quickly push the US economy into recession. 1st April 2022 · 7 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The unexpected decline in the ISM manufacturing index to 57.1 in March, from 58.6, still leaves it at a healthy level and, with other US manufacturing surveys strengthening last month. Nevertheless... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Employment Report (Mar.) The 431,000 rise in non-farm payrolls is another sign that the real economy has plenty of momentum, though with those gains now being helped by a stronger rebound in the labour force, there are signs... 1st April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Budget 2022 could make Bank even more “forceful” The strong activity data released this week raise the odds of the Bank of Canada hiking interest rates by a larger 50bp at its meeting later this month, particularly if the government loosens fiscal... 1st April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office Metro Outlook (Q1 2022) We expect the best performing office markets over the next five years to be in Southern and Western metros, meaning that almost all the new additions to our forecast this quarter will outperform the... 31st March 2022 · 14 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) Following the moderate gain in GDP in January, the preliminary estimate of a further 0.8% m/m surge in activity in February will fuel speculation that the Bank of Canada will hike its policy rate by a... 31st March 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Crude stocks fell again last week, as healthy profit margins appear to be driving an upturn in refinery activity. That said, high product prices are also taking their toll on consumer demand, which... 30th March 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Jan.) The rebound in house price inflation seen at the end of last year continued into 2022, with annual growth on the Case-Shiller measure moving back above 19%. But housing market activity has slowed... 29th March 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update US corporate earnings may be resilient to Ukraine war While we think that the war in Ukraine and Fed tightening will weigh on US corporate earnings, we still expect those earnings to grow in the next two years or so. This underpins our view that US... 28th March 2022 · 4 mins read
Asset Allocation Update High inflation no guarantee of US REIT outperformance We think that the poor performance of US REITs in 2022 so far – despite rising concerns about inflation – adds to the evidence that REITs are not necessarily a better inflation hedge than ordinary... 25th March 2022 · 3 mins read
