US Commercial Property Update Divergence in regional mall performance set to persist The squeeze on consumer incomes points to a tough couple of years ahead for regional and super-regional malls, which tend to be more reliant on discretionary spending than other retail property types... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed set to push harder on the brakes With Fed officials seemingly competing to try and sound more hawkish than their peers, a 50bp rate hike next month appears nailed on – even though this week also brought further tentative signs that... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update What the evolving monetary policy outlook means for bonds This Update presents our revised forecasts for the yields of developed market (DM) long-term government bonds, in light of recent market moves and changes to our expectations for monetary policy. 22nd April 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) Retail sales were basically unchanged in February, but this understates the strength of total spending following the lifting of the Omicron wave restrictions on high-contact services. As consumer... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Tighter policy to drive GDP growth below potential Economic activity should expand at a strong pace this year but, with the Bank of Canada set to tighten policy rapidly, we expect the quarterly pace of GDP growth to slow below potential in 2023, as... 21st April 2022 · 19 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update There is still likely to be a reckoning for offices We think the recent upturn in office market performance is largely down to the one-off release of pent-up demand and remain downbeat about future prospects. With occupancy still languishing and remote... 21st April 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Update Can cash buyers keep house prices booming? Rising mortgage interest rates and tight credit conditions pushed the cash buyer share of existing home sales to a six-year high in March. But while the cash buyer share and house price growth are... 21st April 2022 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update Softer housing demand to bring down US lumber price A cooling US housing market will weigh on lumber prices, despite disruption to imports from Canada. We expect the lumber price to continue its downward trend, but to remain well above its 10-year... 21st April 2022 · 4 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude oil stocks fell last week on the back of a rise in exports and a decrease in imports. Going forward, though, the US government’s plan to further draw down its strategic oil reserves... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Chart Pack Better news on inflation won’t stop the Fed While we are confident that inflation will fall back sharply in the second half of this year, that will not stop the Fed delivering a series of 50bp rate hikes at its upcoming meetings. Although... 20th April 2022 · 9 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) Surging mortgage interest rates pushed March existing home sales down to their lowest since the height of COVID-19-restirctions in mid-2020. We expect mortgage rates to rise further over the next year... 20th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) The surge in inflation in March was much larger than the Bank of Canada expected and suggests it will follow its 50 bp interest rate hike last week with another similar-sized move at its next meeting... 20th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) Housing starts rose a by a marginal 0.3% m/m in March, driven by the volatile multifamily sector. Single-family starts saw a small fall, as did building permits. While we expect new home demand to be... 19th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Focus Peak in the 10-year Treasury yield may be some way off An analysis of the behaviour of the yield of 10-year US Treasuries during the eight major Fed tightening cycles since the 1970s suggests to us that the current sell-off in long-dated US government... 14th April 2022 · 16 mins read
US Economics Weekly Peak inflation won’t stop the Fed hiking aggressively The news that core prices rose by a more modest 0.3% in March, even as higher energy prices drove headline inflation to a 40-year high of 8.5%, explains why investors pared bets this week on how far... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Households vulnerable to higher rates The Bank of Canada embraced a new-found hawkishness this week, hiking its policy rate by 50bp to 1.00% and announcing an almost immediate start to what amounts to a relatively more aggressive... 14th April 2022 · 5 mins read
