Global Economics Update Q1 GDP data give a false steer on US vs euro-zone Uncharacteristically, euro-zone GDP rose while US GDP fell in Q1. But the weak outturn in the US partly reflected temporary factors and domestic spending remained much stronger than in the euro-zone... 3rd May 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Business surveys strong, but clouds gather for housing The CFIB Business Barometer remained very strong in April and seems to bode well for the short-term outlook, but signs of a sharp slowdown in the housing market suggest that higher interest rates may... 29th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Housing Market Outlook Home sales and prices to cool as affordability worsens Mortgage rates have risen faster than we originally anticipated and we now expect them to peak at 5.6% in mid-2023. That’s below the level of around 6% which we think risks tiggering a housing market... 29th April 2022 · 18 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed to ignore Q1 GDP and hike regardless We doubt that the unexpected 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP will stop the Fed from hiking its policy rate by a bigger 50bp next week or from launching quantitative tightening. The Fed... 29th April 2022 · 8 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Labour demand will continue to cool We expect that employment growth continued to trend lower in April, with non-farm payrolls rising by 375,000. Alongside rebounding participation, that easing in labour demand looks set to drive wage... 28th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response GDP (Q1) The unexpectedly severe 1.4% annualised decline in first-quarter GDP probably won't stop the Fed from hiking interest rates by 50bp next week, since officials will chalk it up to the temporary impact... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Market Survey (Q1) The RICS Q1 survey showed a further improvement in sentiment, driven by more confidence in prospects for the office and retail sectors. However, since the survey was conducted, the outlook for growth... 28th April 2022 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We suspect US big tech will remain under pressure We think that there is plenty of scope for US “big tech” in general to stay under pressure, given the prospects for TIPS and the potential for future earnings to fall short of expectations. 27th April 2022 · 5 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Mar.) The recovery in employment broadly continued in March. However, the laggards in the recovery still look many months away from previous peaks in terms of both total and office-based employment. At the... 27th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Fed Watch Fed’s hawkish transformation complete We expect the Fed to hike interest rates by 50bp at next week’s FOMC meeting and to launch its quantitative tightening, with the cap on maturing principal allowed to roll off each month quickly rising... 27th April 2022 · 7 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Productivity rebound to offset stronger wage growth The further fall in the unemployment rate in March, to a multi-decade low of 5.3%, raises the risk that a sharp acceleration in wage growth will exacerbate inflationary pressures, at a time when... 27th April 2022 · 8 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA & New Home Sales (Feb./Mar.) Month-on-month house price growth rose to a record high in February, as households desperate to buy before interest rates increased bid up the price of those few homes for sale. But the surge in... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Mar.) The solid increase in durable goods orders in March reflects both easing supply shortages as well as strong underlying investment demand. Business equipment investment is usually one of the more rate... 26th April 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response NCREIF Property Index (Q1 2022) Total returns on the NCREIF index were strong again in Q1, at 5.3% q/q. That was led by industrial, where they reached 11% q/q, with apartments at just over 5% and the other sectors all lagging at... 26th April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Divergence in regional mall performance set to persist The squeeze on consumer incomes points to a tough couple of years ahead for regional and super-regional malls, which tend to be more reliant on discretionary spending than other retail property types... 22nd April 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Fed set to push harder on the brakes With Fed officials seemingly competing to try and sound more hawkish than their peers, a 50bp rate hike next month appears nailed on – even though this week also brought further tentative signs that... 22nd April 2022 · 6 mins read
