US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) Surging mortgage rates led to another fall in existing home sales in May to their lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 lockdowns two years ago. And with mortgage rates set to rise to 6.5% by... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The strong rise in retail sales volumes in April reinforces our view that overall consumption growth will accelerate sharply this quarter but, with consumer confidence plunging in June and the housing... 21st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Surge in mortgage rates makes house price falls likely We have previously argued that a mortgage rate of above 6% represents the threshold at which house price falls become likely. With rates recently rising above that level, we are therefore revising... 20th June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly Economy still bending rather than breaking Evidence that economic growth has rebounded in the second quarter, alongside the likelihood of a further big rise in consumer prices in June, suggest that the Fed will press ahead with another super... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) The muted 0.2% m/m rise in industrial production in May adds to the evidence that the economy is slowing. But there is still little in activity data to suggest a recession is on the horizon, or to... 17th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly New CPI weights to push inflation above 8% The new CPI weights outlined this week mean that inflation will peak at more than 8% in June, which is higher than we previously expected. That further raises the chance of the Bank of Canada... 17th June 2022 · 6 mins read
Global Markets Update New forecasts for US Treasuries & the S&P 500 We think the sell-offs in US government bonds and equities have further to run, and have revised our forecasts for 10-year Treasuries and the S&P 500 accordingly. Markets Drop-In (22 nd June, 10:00 ET... 17th June 2022 · 4 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) Housing starts in May recorded their largest month-on-month decline since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. A fall in housing demand due to higher mortgage rates is occurring at the same time as... 16th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks rose again this week, following another unusually large release from the strategic reserve. Meanwhile, implied product demand fell back as petroleum product prices remain very... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Treasuries and US equities less likely to bottom out together The prospect of even tighter Fed policy than we had previously envisaged raises the risk of a worse outcome for the US economy and corporate earnings further down the line than we had assumed. So, we... 15th June 2022 · 5 mins read
US Data Response Retail Sales (May) The 0.3% m/m fall in retail sales in May and downward revisions to previous months’ gains suggest that surging prices might finally be taking their toll on real consumption. But with the latter still... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Update Freeport outage fuels already heightened supply fears The closure of the Freeport LNG facility in the US, for up to six months, adds to concerns about Europe’s ability to fill its gas storage tanks ahead of winter. We always suspected that supply... 15th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Global Markets Update Turning more downbeat on both Treasuries & US equities The prospect of tighter Fed policy than we had previously envisaged presents upside risks to our forecasts for the 10-year Treasury yield as well as downside risks to our forecasts for the S&P 500. In... 14th June 2022 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will property resist the effects of deglobalisation? A recent MSCI article speculated that real estate investment could buck the deglobalisation trend given distinct features of the asset class, though we are not convinced that will bring many benefits... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Apr.) The 0.9% m/m rise in April, combined with a large upward revision to March, means that manufacturing sales volumes have finally risen above their pre-pandemic peak. While the recovery in the motor... 14th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Existing home sales set for a sharper fall Leading indicators are pointing to a large fall in existing home sales. For example, the recent sharp decline in the NAR buyer traffic balance is consistent with a fall in sales to 4.5m annualised... 14th June 2022 · 3 mins read
