US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to 56.1 in May, from 55.4, was better than we had anticipated and suggests a continued easing of supply shortages is supporting activity. But we expect a... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Update Is remote work responsible for the house price boom? By increasing the demand for accommodation and boosting rents, the shift to remote work will have put some upward pressure on house prices. But while rents have seen an above-trend increase since the... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Economics Update Bank hikes rates by 50bp again and hints at even more The Bank of Canada hiked its policy rate by another 50bp, to 1.5%, today and, after warning that "the risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen", closed the accompanying statement with... 1st June 2022 · 3 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (Apr.) The ongoing jobs recovery continued in April, although employment remained below its pre-pandemic level in more than half the 30 metros covered. Those losers tend to be expensive coastal metros and... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (May) A small fall in mortgage rates over the second half of May failed to arrest a downward trend in mortgage demand, with applications for home purchase ending the month at a two-year low. And with that... 1st June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Valuation Monitor Biggest quarterly drop in property valuations on record There was a huge deterioration in property valuations in Q1, reflecting the sharp rises in alternative asset yields recorded since the start of the year. The size of those yield rises mostly dwarfed... 31st May 2022 · 7 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.) Annual money growth is slowing sharply and, given rapidly rising interest rates, wealth losses and QT, that slowdown has a lot further to run. The growth rate of bank loans is accelerating, however... 31st May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA House Prices (Mar.) House prices surged in March, with Case-Shiller reporting record gains on both a monthly and annual basis. That reflects the jump in housing demand seen over the turn of the year, when desperate... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1) First-quarter GDP growth slowed to 3.1% annualised, from 6.6%, as the Omicron-related restrictions had more of an impact than previously thought. But the 0.7% m/m increase in monthly GDP in March... 31st May 2022 · 2 mins read
Asset Allocation Update Consumer staples stocks may outperform again Even if high inflation continues to put downward pressure on profit margins, we still suspect that the consumer staples sector in the US will be a relative bright spot against a backdrop of... 27th May 2022 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly Strong consumer; “greedflation” not a thing The 0.7% jump in real consumption in April, together with the upward revision to March’s gain leaves consumption on track for a 5% annualised gain in the second quarter. Thanks to a rapid rebound in... 27th May 2022 · 6 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank to continue with 50bp rate hikes With core inflation rising well above the ceiling of the 1% to 3% target range and first-quarter GDP growth likely to have been as strong as 5.0% annualised, there is little to stop the Bank of Canada... 27th May 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Core inflation still rising With core CPI inflation still rising, the Bank of Canada has no choice but to continue hiking its policy rate “forcefully’ back toward neutral. All three of the core measures tracked by the Bank are... 26th May 2022 · 9 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth slowing We expect that non-farm payroll growth slowed in May, albeit to a still strong 300,000 . 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Retail sales values were unchanged month-to-month in March, as a further supply-related slump in motor vehicle sales offset a largely price-related surge in gasoline station sales and solid increases... 26th May 2022 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Inventory rebound shows shortages easing fitfully The rapid rebuilding of inventories over the past few quarters has left it close to normal levels in some sectors. But the bigger picture is that economy-wide inventories are still exceptionally lean... 25th May 2022 · 4 mins read
