FX Markets Update What would it take to generate an even stronger US dollar? We forecast a further ~2% appreciation of the trade-weighted US dollar over the rest of this year. But we continue to think that the risks are skewed towards even greater dollar strength. This Update... 7th July 2022 · 4 mins read
Canada Data Response International Trade (May) The recent falls in commodity prices mean that, after soaring in May and probably improving again in June, the trade surplus will decline in the coming months. Nonetheless, as we expect commodity... 7th July 2022 · 3 mins read
US Data Response International Trade (May) The further narrowing in the trade deficit in May reflects the strength of exports and implies that net trade provided a decent boost to second-quarter GDP growth, which we estimate was close to 1%... 7th July 2022 · 2 mins read
Bank of Canada Watch A more forceful 75 bp hike The recent acceleration in wage growth and rise in long-run inflation expectations leave little doubt that, despite the drop back in commodity prices, the Bank of Canada will follow through with a... 6th July 2022 · 6 mins read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun.) Mortgage applications for home purchase saw a slight recovery over the course of June as mortgage interest rates eased back. But demand remains depressed compared to its pre-COVID-19 level and a... 6th July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The sharp slowdown in money growth is set to continue as the Fed’s monetary tightening ramps up, but the resilience of bank lending suggests the impact on the economy will be limited. Payrolls Drop-In... 6th July 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response Business Outlook & Consumer Expect. Surveys (Q2) The increase in long-run inflation expectations in the Bank of Canada’s latest business and consumer surveys further raises the probability of the Bank enacting a larger 75 bp interest rate hike next... 4th July 2022 · 4 mins read
US Commercial Property Outlook Office Metro Outlook In light of the deterioration in the economic environment, our office metro forecasts have been downgraded across the board. Those downgrades are driven by a substantial shift in our yield view, which... 1st July 2022 · 14 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index to a two-year low of 53.0 in June, from 56.1, will probably add to fears over the health of the economy. That said, for now it is still consistent on past form... 1st July 2022 · 2 mins read
US Housing Market Focus Looser mortgage standards won’t keep the party going In contrast to the mid-2000s, there seems little chance of a significant loosening in mortgage lending standards in response to higher interest rates today. Traditional banks have not forgotten the... 1st July 2022 · 12 mins read
US Economics Weekly Mounting signs of a slowdown We learned this week that consumer spending lost more momentum through the second quarter than initially thought, while the incoming survey evidence for June suggests the quarter ended on a weak note... 1st July 2022 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy losing momentum While the apparent contraction in GDP in May appears to have been partly due to temporary factors, it also reflects the impact of the surge in interest rates on housing. With the business surveys for... 30th June 2022 · 5 mins read
US Employment Report Preview Employment growth slowing, but no sign of collapse We forecast that payroll employment growth slowed fairly sharply in June, but remained solid at 250,000. That should be enough to keep the Fed on track for another 75bp rate hike in July. Payrolls... 30th June 2022 · 3 mins read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Apr.) The preliminary estimate suggests that the healthy 0.3% m/m rise in GDP in April was followed by a shock 0.2% contraction in May but, as this appears to have been partly due to temporary factors, it... 30th June 2022 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Data Response US Metro Employment (May) Employment growth slowed last month, but remained above its historic averages. The big gainer in May was Dallas, which recorded the strongest 3m/3m growth in both total and office-based employment... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report Commercial crude stocks fell last week as refineries raised production of petroleum products. However, refineries will probably struggle to raise output much further, with many of them operating near... 29th June 2022 · 2 mins read
